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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRH who wrote (20530)	3/17/2000 9:04:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Justin: You deserve a straight answer - I, for one, don't know. All I can suggest is that as Intel ran into situations where some of us decided to lighten up and then get out entirely, Cisco is at an inflection point, IMO. Fiberoptics is that inflection point. The situation with Cisco is that without any question its networking strengths are carrying it on, and well. And Cisco is doing what it does well, inter alia, picking up brains to make its entry into mainstream fiberoptics systems successful. But the brute fact is that Cisco is far behind Nortel in fiberoptics systems and probably behind Lucent as well. Cisco has huge strengths and fine management. But does this make Cisco the leader or gorilla in fiberoptics systems? Perhaps, but perhaps not. And clearly, not yet. It is with great pain that I write this, and expect considerable disagreement. Suggest we can all learn from discussing Cisco's future in fiberoptics - which is the future in networking. Best. Cha2

To: JRH who wrote (20530)	3/17/2000 10:43:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Justin, I began reading the RFM (I hope to get the whole thing read this week) Ah ha! Caught ya! You were supposed to read it on that ski trip awhile ago. Now you tell us. :) --Mike Buckley

To: JRH who wrote (20530)	3/18/2000 1:29:00 AM
From: kumar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Is the optical switching/networking technology an outside technology that has caught Cisco by surprise? page 193 of RFM : rule #4 : "...sell only on proven substitution threat" rule #9 : "in a gorilla collision, hold your gorilla candidates until there has been a definitive outcome". comments ? cheers, kumar

To: JRH who wrote (20530)	3/18/2000 3:01:00 AM
From: kumar	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

re RFM states on page 14, "You will hear grumblings about these threats long before they affect the gorilla's revenue or earnings, and you will have plenty of time to get out safely". the very next sentence says : "indeed, the greater danger probably comes from overreacting to potential threats that never come to pass, and thereby selling a gorilla stock that has years of good growth left." IMHO, Buy&Hold, till substitution threat is proven to be a reality. comments ? cheers, kumar

To: JRH who wrote (20530)	3/18/2000 5:36:00 AM
From: shamsaee	Respond to of 54805

IMHO if you feel you need to protect yourself look at a basket of RBAK,SCMR,JNPR, and maybe FNSR and AVNX.This is just my opinion and every body has their own investment style but 75% csco 25% the rest gives you the whole network Basket coverage.You can always sell the chimps as the picture becomes clear and reinvest in your gorilla and king.I belive MR.BB can shed some light on the basket approach as he uses it frequently. The comforting part is that the whole sector is on fire.