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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goodboy who wrote (10944)	3/18/2000 12:20:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

I just reread my notes on the December conference call. I think Rocket Scientist had a very good summary on the CC: Message 12320619 The main points as described by RS back in December: - G may start service through Bell Atlantic during 1Q of 2000 - Ericsson type approval was delayed, but is OK now - 2'000 Telit phones by year's end in Italy - March 1 commercial launch in Moscow - February 1 full commercial launch in Beijing; 10 000 phones to be ordered by China Telecom in December 1999 - 200 000 Globalstar phones to be shipped by the end of March 2000 I think that in March 2000 there's only one possible reaction to the December conference call: what the hell? I thought the first-generation Telit models never shipped; what were the 2'000 phones in Italy by year's end? Exactly how was Ericsson's type approval OK in December, if it still isn't OK in March of year 2000? What happened to the Moscow commercial launch? What happened to Beijing? What happened to South Africa? The whole Globalstar business model in December was presented to be based on the Russia/China/South Africa axis. Not on North America and Western Europe. Now, three months later, that core market is MIA. Suddenly, we're back to USA and Western Europe as core markets. So Globalstar started out as a business tool for pampered Western execs... it then morphed into a product for Chinese rice farmers and South African vintners when the Iridium failure poisoned the original plan... and now there's yet another twist. There was a clear reason why Globalstar was different from Iridium; it was aimed at large markets in developing countries. That was the deal. What made the conference call so satanically seductive was the highly specific nature of the tidbits. Moscow will have a big launch on March 1 - look, we can tell you the exact date! China Telecom will order 10 000 phones by New Year - look, we can throw numbers like that around and we haven't even launched! Cool, efficient, specific presentation. Visionary, daring management taking the telecom industry into the new millennium. And here's the best part; since many journalists now covering Globalstar weren't following the company in December, there's always the next sucker to write an article about a buying opportunity. Hence the stunning naivete of the Business Week article. The writer clearly thought that Iridium failed, because the phones cost 3'000 dollars. Apparently nobody told him that the retail price had been slashed to 1'000 bucks months ago, yet that failed to jumpstart the sales. The writer also seemed unaware of the real reason for Globalstar share price fall. It's not the Iridium failure. It's how that December conference call makes the managers of Globalstar appear now. I think Charlton Heston is currently running an NRA ad in USA that summarizes the situation pretty well. Tero

To: Goodboy who wrote (10944)	3/22/2000 10:01:00 AM
From: Geoff Goodfellow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29987

The easy bet was shorting Globalstar in the mid to high thirties or better for a trade down to this current level. My strategy exactly. This has to have been one of the easiest trades of my life. As of yesterday, i went long, but not because i believe in Globalstar's business (which i don't: the next "zero billion dollar industry" if there ever was one after Iridium) but because i believe Real Soon Now there is going to be a hellacious short squeeze. My strategy is now to ride the squeeze up, sell and re-short and ride it back down again, cover, go long, short, cover, etc. This is likely to be good several times (like it was with Iridium). My negative outlook and predictions for Iridiums demise are part of the record (as well as several others who held similar beliefs). I am also on record saying that Globalstar will be a success. As are mine (#reply-11665407, #reply-11666902, #reply-11684987, ), but i don't hold any hope or illusions of success for Globalstar (#reply-11507139), another Big Dream and Grand Vision (which i love), which is certainly much less of a science fair project than Iridium ever was, but still none the less will (sadly and regretfully) fail as a viable business. Geoff Goodfellow Prague, CZ (#reply-11657477)