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To: orkrious who wrote (9746)	3/19/2000 10:27:00 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

Jay, even though the comments in the link you posted are worrisome, my own experience from having worked for several years in SE Asia suggests a different outcome. The Nationalist party was soundly defeated. This is the party that lost to the mainland Chinese and ended up taking over and ruling Taiwan for over 50 years. Now there will be a home grown Taiwanese government, free of the stigma attached to the Nationalist party. This in my view opens up an opportunity to improve relations between Taiwan and the mainland. Any comments pro or con on the likelihood of this scenario coming true? Second, the new leader of Taiwan is obviously an intellectual as well as political force to be reckoned with. He comes from a humble family of the sort that the Communists theoretically praise, and he doesn't carry the baggage of the old guard that has been a thorn in the side of the communists for 50 years. If he appoints a skilled foreign minister, relations between Taiwan and the mainland could improve, IMHO. Art

To: orkrious who wrote (9746)	3/19/2000 12:03:00 PM
From: Rocky Reid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Re: Taiwan OT Forgive me if I'm wrong, but isn't Taiwan over 100 miles away from Mainland China? And also does China have any substantial Navy to speak of? How do you get an invading force, supplies, heavy equipment, and heavy armor to an Island 100 miles away with only a few troop transports? Seems to me a few dozen US-issue Harpoon missles (sea to sea) could end a conventional war real fast. I'm sure the US has supplied Taiwan tons of these. Not to underestimate China, but I have not heard any argument about China's realistic invasion propects before.

To: orkrious who wrote (9746)	3/19/2000 3:31:00 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

Jay and thread- 1.The bit about no e-mails form China is total crap. I have daily e-mail communication form China and telephone as well and there is no problem like that at all. That post was just plain nasty about China. 2. There are 1.3bn people in China and that must mean there are quite a few crazys around in fact 5 times as many crazys as there are in the US in stict proportion. So you will get people who believe that China will go to war with the US. Of course Taiwan is a big issue emotionally but the Chinese are not going to war over Taiwan when they don't have to. Taiwan is muc more closely connected to the mainland than people tend to think. Slowly and surely Taiwan is becoming more and more enmeshed and dependent on the mainland and eventually they will become absorbed in one way or another without military involvement. 3. Many families in China are only allowed one child and those families don't want their one kid to go to war. Chinese society is very family conscious. You don't have to change you pants. Best regards, L