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Biotech / Medical : Incyte (INCY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lighthouse who wrote (1392)	3/20/2000 3:37:00 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3202

<Anyone want to start a pool about what INCY will do with their money?> Bid $111 for the 2 million shares back?? Nice trade INCY! Go baby! Couldn't help myself, in for a tad today. DAK

To: Lighthouse who wrote (1392)	3/20/2000 4:24:00 PM
From: RWReeves	Respond to of 3202

DAK- Is it safe yet? There's still over a hundred bucks between this and zero and I liked it more when I owned it at 20... Concerned that further fund redemptions this week will dump more INCY shares on the market. I have a small "hurt me good" position in HGSI and would like some INCY but those sharp bits.... RWR

To: Lighthouse who wrote (1392)	3/29/2000 4:38:00 PM
From: Lighthouse	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3202

O.K. there went the toe. Now I have an ankle in the slightly red water. Good news: Cash divided by total cap equals apx. 24% Price to sales minus cash on 2000 revenue estimates now is apx. 10.4. That is a whole lot better than a price to adjusted sales of 44.97 when we hit $289 per share. Since this thread has been quite lately I offer up the following: Chip Morris at T. Rowe Price has a gauge he uses in regards to high tech companies. The price to sales ratio divided by the ultimate net margins of the company. (Yes this is a very, very rough off the cuff ratio but it does have some logic to it IMHO) So again after adjusting for cash on hand today I get the folowing (this is merely to stimulate debate do not take any of this as gospel) At ultimate net margins of 10% for INCY . . . . I get a p/e of 104, At 15% net margins I get 69 and at 20% net margins (like big pharma) I get 52. Rough but this gives us some sense at what some portfolio managers are looking at. My last question for the thread: To date INCY has made 30,000 wet clones for development targets. Each clone goes out with a contract royalty agreement so that if a product is developed from it INCY gets a cut. Question: What % of these will hit. .001% (that = .3 targets) .01% (that yields 3 targets). At .1% we get 30 targets (now we are getting somewhere). And finally the whopper at 1% we get 300 targets. Big question: What is the number? Now if we take the number of targets and can guess the average size of the drug developed, apply a small royalty to it, adjust for the time value of money we get a value of present day royalty revenue . . . . after that we have to . . . . . . Anybody interested? Cheers,