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Technology Stocks : Gemstar Intl (GMST) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (2468)	3/22/2000 12:05:00 AM
From: Jeff Bond	Respond to of 6516

Compliments on the analysis, I learned many lessons in that post, thank you. I consider one factor very important, worth monitoring, and as best as possible worth measuring. One fundamental event which MUST occur in order for GMST to succeed is for advanced Set Top Boxes and TV's to make their way into the homes of consumers. Without the advanced equipment to drive and display their technology, it is like a car without gas. In this regard, I endeavor to VERY closely monitor the extent to which STB's, digital cable, advanced TV's and such are absorbed into the mass market. I also recall reading this in last years 10K, and therefore consider it a substantial contributing factor to the ultimate success of Gemstar. Regards, JB

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (2468)	3/22/2000 12:16:00 AM
From: Eric Jacobson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6516

Mike, nice post. As I read it I kept thinking you might leave something out that I might be able to add, but you really didn't. In short, I agree the TVGIA deal is a defining moment because it eliminates the most significant competitor in the IPG space, it eliminates the legal wrangling between the two companies, and it will likely speed the adoption of IPGs by cable companies (remember, TVGIA has a better relationship with cable companies than Gemstar. I was struck in the recent SEC filing with how involved AT&T was in some of the negotiations). You did leave a couple of crumbs in terms of additional defining moments to watch for which I'll try to sweep up: 1. The Scientific Atlanta suit with regards to digital settop boxes still needs to be resolved. The last court decision in Gemstar's favor only dealt with analog boxes. 2. The recent Tivo dispute will need to be resolved. 3. The issue of VBI stripping is still a cloud that hangs over the GuidePlus technology. See multichannel.com It would be nice if this could be settled once and for all. 4. As Mike mentioned, it will be important to track advertising revenues. We were just beginning get a handle on that for Gemstar. From what we can tell, it's growing rapidly from a small base. Hopefully we'll still be able to track this revenue from the combined Gemstar/TVGIA. 5. And finally, with regard to e-books, it will be important to watch for the formation of value chains around this technology, like the recent partnership with Thompson, especially if these value chains enable Gemstar to eventually spin off the actual production of e-books in favor of only collecting royalties (similar to how QCOM recently spun off its phone business).