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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bretsky who wrote (20967)	3/22/2000 12:53:00 AM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Bret, congratulations to you and the missus on the joyous news. (You think she feels bad now, wait til your new daughter goes out on her first date or your new son takes his first solo in the car. <g>) Best wishes. Children are life's greatest blessing.

To: Bretsky who wrote (20967)	3/22/2000 2:09:00 AM
From: chaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Great news...we ought to get some smaller size gorilla shirts for all the little rug rats we're hearing about. (Where DO you guys find the time for baby-making with all the thread bloat, like this one?) Lots of folks will be itching to read all about BRCM, me included. Chaz

To: Bretsky who wrote (20967)	3/22/2000 3:22:00 AM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Bretsky, First, congrats on the newest forthcoming threadmember! Second, re Jubak and JDSU, there's some history here, as you well know. Five months ago he warned investors off it because he thought it was too risky going forward given its then-whopping valuation ($32 billion). He recommended SDLI, a worthy but minor competitor in the same area, instead. Message 11902837 I decided to check how that call had turned out, and the results were interesting: siliconinvestor.com SDLI was not a bad call (although its small cumulative advantage is due only to a quicker recovery from this last dip). But what is striking is how similar the charts are: clearly the tornado is lifting all the key players in this area, and at pretty comparable rates to boot: not surprising, perhaps, given that this is a royalty game rather than a gorilla game and so the leader differs from the followers in degree rather than kind. What this all reveals to me is the wisdom of LTB&H over trading. Let's say you liked the optical components sector and bought in to JDSU (then just U) a year ago, then dumped it and switched to SDLI on Jubak's recommendation seven months later, then decided to switch back on his recommendation now. Forget the illogic in buying back in to a stock you left on valuation concerns when it's nearly three times the price; concentrate on the tax consequence of the two transactions involved. SDLI would have had to dominate JDSU during the five months you had it just to cover the tax costs of switching...something that was always highly unlikely.... tekboy/Ares@becomingtortoiserandtortoiser.com