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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (43823)	3/22/2000 11:18:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim sorry to hear about your parents. Definitely a lot of volatility. CNBC gurus call it " dichotomy ", gg,( Dow uo Naz down ); This is classical for major bull market tops. I think we are floating somewhere at the top right now, like in a surfing: you are at the top of the wave and things look fantastic....... ..for a while only. I am looking at what will be the toppling event. Read somewhere that few predicted the toppling event, a priori , in past drops. My picks: - US Governors are getting pretty p***ed off about the giant amount of money lost in taxes though Internet. I believe that eventually e-commerce will be taxed. Don't know by how much butwhen it happens the bloom will come off the rose. -China talking about nuking Taiwan. We had crazy Hitlers and Mussolinis before and we'll have them again. -Same for India nuking Pakistan. -Shift of funds world wide caused by currrencies unpegged to gold and create Al's " imbalances ". -OPEC declaring : " oil out put is fine as it is ". There are more I am sure. Meanwhile what's a poor daytrder to do? Jump in and out of the hoop of fire and continue trying to make a living I suppose, :-) TA

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (43823)	3/22/2000 11:47:00 AM
From: Arial	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

There was a 5 day RSI of the VIX that the Intelligent Speculator used to publish that was pretty good at marking turning points (although that's not what you're looking for). Here's a chart that shows there is still room for the VIX to fall to its lower Bollinger Band. (You might have to hit refresh several times. The Big Chart Index charts for some reason won't come up on my screen right away like a normal stock does.) bigcharts.com Previous I.S. Chart: intelligentspeculator.com

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (43823)	3/22/2000 5:00:00 PM
From: OX	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I try to pay attention to option volatility (vol). my sense is that short-term vol rose going into PPI/CPI and has diminished since. medium-term, vol has been diminishing since 'peaking' during Feb. maybe I'm misunderstanding your Q tho.. I would say VIX is an excellent way to track overall mkt vol. tracking individual implied vol and trying to apply in general is virtually impossible, unless one has a bank of computers. VIX does this very well taking into acct varying near-the-money strikes and varying front-months (from what I understand) --- one of these days I'm going to find the specifics of the VIX calc and apply it to other indices. anyone that knows where I can find this, pls do tell. (tx)