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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (5109)	3/23/2000 7:15:00 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14638

Gregory, Ken, Bosco- Thanks for the responses. Though the article did mention both, I was just curious how defined NT's vision was more than anything else. Bosco you pretty much summed up how I feel. And as you and Ken both pointed out, no one knows exactly how large the market is going to be for all the effort CSCO, LU, and NT are placing on these huge, expensive machines they are working on. I guess the answer will reveal itself in listening to each CC, quarter after quarter. I just see how stingy the incumbent LECs are in the access and metro market. And it's hard to imagine them spending for the huge machines apparently the big three are targeting. But I suppose the most immediate market for their products are the IXCs and backbone/long distance players. Of which I don't have a strong feel for. If you really want to get confused, with all the talk about the big three's optical plans, below is a little article that says, believe it or not, Alcatel is the leader in optical today. Anyway, it's kind of interesting and I realize it's not in the same space that NT, LU, and CSCO are going after. Alcatel's optical stuff is that here and now spending that I like so much. But it gets little to no press over here. Sometimes I wonder how CSCO missed this space Alcatel plays in. It's almost as if Cisco is skipping to the core optical machines. You would think with CSCO's methodical steps, they would work their way up from the enterprise, step by step. Maybe they are and I don't know it. Seems like NT is working from the core back down too. All their general core optical strategies are interesting. Not as easy to keep track of like the Last Mile is. -MikeM(From Florida) PS BTW I'm optical agnostic. I can't figure it out so I have a position in every company mentioned above. ************************ Dec. 14, 1999-- Which company is in the lead in optical networking? A new study by RHK, a high-tech consultancy in San Francisco, provides some clues. The European and Global Transport Market Study has found that Nortel leads the market in global terrestrial DWDM sales. The company held a 32 percent market share for 1999, while Lucent held a 27 percent market share and Ciena held a 16 percent share. However, does this mean that Nortel leads in optical networking? Apparently, it does not. When the total transport market is considered, which includes terrestrial DWDM equipment, terrestrial sonet and SDH equipment, digital cross-connects, and submarine equipment, Alcatel holds a lead. Alcatel had 21 percent of the market in 1999, while Nortel had 18 percent and Lucent had 15 percent. Other equipment manufacturers were in the single digits or less. Nortel led in sonet and SDH global terrestrial equipment in 1999. It grabbed a 26 percent market share, with Lucent at 18 percent, Alcatel at 15 percent, Fujitsu at 13 percent and everyone else in single digits. Alcatel led in digital cross-connect market share, at 37 percent, while Tellabs [TLAB] had a 31 percent share, Marconi had 12 percent and Lucent had 10 percent. Voltaire Cacal, senior analyst at RHK, says to expect good things from the global transport market. "We will see the global transport market tripling from $31 billion in 1999 to about $90 billion in 2003," Cacal says. The growth will be caused by: global deregulation of the telecommunications industry; traffic increasing, especially Internet traffic; recovering economies in Europe, Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe; and an increasing focus on telecom networks in developing countries. "Optics is definitely where the action is**," says Craig Johnson, principal of the PITA Group, a high-tech consultancy in Portland, Ore. "We will see a lot of money spent there in the next several years, such as on smart optical switches. We will also see optics moving into corporate backbones within two years."