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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (8133)	3/24/2000 10:09:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

Gottfried, Thanks for the link to the article. The article encouraged me just a little, though. Yeah, maybe a little. It's sure not a slam dunk though. As I see it, the most positive things effecting the industry are: 1) The projected unit doubling in the next 4 or 5 years. 2) The new consumer products that will add to unit growth and allow for Bohn's product differentiation to possibly occur. 3) The evolution of storage in networks and its possible ascendancy. The negatives, need I list them, are 1) The commodity nature of business. 2) Ease of entrance into industry. 3) Too many players and too much capacity. This last point is made clear by looking at the chart on page 15 of IDEMA Insight. There are 5 major players in the industry at the end of 1999. This is actually worse than just a few years ago. This is, in my experience, too many players in an oligopoly by 2. My optimism centers on the unit growth and the slowing of ASP declines returning top line growth. This will, hopefully, return the industry to profitability and allow the players to focus on some of Bohn's suggestions rather than survival.