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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mtnlady who wrote (21256)	3/24/2000 2:27:00 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

optical 'router' Could you explain what you mean by this? Routing is "level 3" i.e. requires "looking inside the packets" to determine the destination. Perhaps you meant optical switch, "level 2", where ultimate packet destination is not required. It was my understanding that true optical routing was more than a year away and thus the "net" would still be dependant upon routers with electronic cores and this keeps Cisco's lock (IOS) intact. lurking... lurqer

To: mtnlady who wrote (21256)	3/24/2000 2:59:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

mtnlady: Know your post was addressed to my predecessor chaz, but even though as a matter of courtesy I use Cha2 here, I use Chaz elsewhere - such as the Q and NT threads. I bought Cisco in 1990 and NT in 1996 so it is difficult for me to evaluate this "networking/fiberoptics" horserace in an entirely objective manner. Both have done well to put it mildly. That is why I suggest watching and using a basket of two - NT and Cisco. With some slight degree of sadness due to nostalgia, I would weight NT at least at twice Cisco in that basket (and have in fact a heavier weight in favor of NT in the real world). But again I shifted my concentration away from networking to wireless and fiberoptics in 1996 - when I bought NT initially - and sold some Cisco to do so. But that is just me and as of now. Much appreciate your digging on this. I am learning much from your posts. Please continue. I would guess several people here are very interested in this area of investment given the explosive market it represents. BTW Although Mike sometimes chides me for appearing to act as his agent, here is one other area where I think Mike's suggestions are very helpful. That Cisco is a gorilla in networking (narrowly defined as LAN and WAN) is a given. But that in no way makes Cisco a gorilla in fiberoptics networking systems supply. (I think there is none now and probably will not be - but will watch) The point Mike makes as I understand him is that a company can be a gorilla in one field and a king (or less) in another - or even more than one other. Mike's point on this is a major useful contribution to using the gorilla game wisely IMO. We tend to think in "halo effect" terms - especially with the silverbacks Cisco and Microsoft. But Cisco does not enter the fiberoptics arena as a gorilla in that space, and Microsoft does not enter the wireless arena as a gorilla in that space. Just IMO of course. And thanks for your research, analysis, thinking and perception. Best. Cha2 (Chaz elsewhere) PS I have tried to be faithful to what I understand Mike's idea on being a gorilla in one area and something else in another, but I might not have that right - or as he would put it. He may (and probably will) wish to comment/correct.

To: mtnlady who wrote (21256)	3/24/2000 3:17:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>> As you know we are in a tornado situation and Moore states that market share won during this critical phase is NEVER relinquished. NT's 90% market share in the new standard, OC-192, with Cisco's OC-192 product not due out until Q4/00 is a MAJOR LEAD and growing all the time. I'd be interested in seeing data to support the assumptions you've stated as fact; namely, that OC192 products are in Tornado Alley (and not the Bowling Alley). NT has 90% market share and Cisco won't ship product until 4Q00. You might be able to get some expert input if you asked the folks on the Cisco thread for comments; a lot networking engineers hand out there. tia, uf

To: mtnlady who wrote (21256)	3/24/2000 3:43:00 PM
From: JRH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

mtnlady: Because optical routing is still a futuristic technology, this post seems intriguing to me: Message 13275632 Comments? <edit: I just noticed that quoted post was addressed to you and you responded on the NT thread. Sorry for the redundancy...> Justin

To: mtnlady who wrote (21256)	3/24/2000 5:29:00 PM
From: chaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

mtnlady: Treat this as you wish, but as the head honcho on HUNT, I think it would be simply marvelous to have a complete report on this. I am intrigued, of course, but I hold none of these companies...mostly out of ignorance on my part, and that due to the (what I consider) substantial technical expertise required. Thus, what is being said here begs for documentation...would you be willing, have the time, and the moxie, to take this on for the thread? Chaz/Thucydidies

To: mtnlady who wrote (21256)	3/25/2000 3:31:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>> NT's 90% market share in the new standard, OC-192, with Cisco's OC-192 product not due out until Q4/00 is a MAJOR LEAD I have a data point for your research effort on Cisco, ML. I talked with a contact of mine who is an executive at a networking comapany which competes directly with Cisco. He advises from first hand knowledge that Cisco is currently shipping OC192 based products in production quantities to a major telecom. I'm looking forward to your report. uf