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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (99989)	3/26/2000 2:37:00 AM
From: that_crazy_doug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573482

<< In this industry anything is possible but I think it is not pragmatic to think that a product that has not yet taped out would be worse than a competitors product that has just seen first silicon. >> It may be my naive understanding of microsprocessor design, but I thought it took years to design the processors. Given that, it seems unlikely that if sledgehammer was really going to appear in Q1 or even H1 of 2001 that they'd have enough time to tweak it to be better than willamete if it isn't going to be better already. Of course, one would have to assume, that it'd have to be better than athlon, which gives it good hope. On the otherhand, until you get first silicon you never really know what you've got. << And as long as we are talking vapor, it is fair to compare to vapor. >> Hehe, fair enough, though I wouldn't consider willamete entirely vapor since it was demoed. I haven't heard anything about sledgehammer taping out yet, so I'd assume it's still at least a year from production. Intel is in a precarious position. They can't afford to have a repeat of the problems with the willamete launch that they had with the coppermine launch, however at the same time they need to launch it asap, because after the 1 ghz fiasco, it's quite obvious the athlon will scale significantly better than the coppermine. I heard from a buddy of mine that intel sold 3 million shares of red hat this quarter. Which if true would probably make up for about 8 cents on earnings, and it'd provide another protective maneuver for the stock until willamete comes back. (of course, he said he heard it from one of the yahoo threads, so take that with a grain of salt.) << I would be too. I would be very comfortable with a Q3 intro. >> I think a Q3 launch is realistic, however, I'd get real nervous trying to hold the stock until then if athlon is beaten badly by willamete, and willamete reaches volume in Q1. From the discussions I've heard about willamete it doesn't seem like intel should have problems yielding high mhz (or ghz for that matter) parts.