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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (9837)	3/26/2000 1:07:00 PM
From: The Prophet	Respond to of 60323

Thanks for the link, Zeev. I will need to digest that info. To cover myself in the event of competition between embedded and removable flash, I have also been buying FLSH, which seems to have a good embedded flash product (disk-on-a-chip). Any thoughts on them? Prophet

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (9837)	3/26/2000 1:07:00 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 60323

Zeev, That little blurb doesn't even give half the story. They include mp3 players in "Other applicances" like it won't be a significant market, which is nonsense. They project things like "approximately 30 million cameras in 2002" in their text, then in their table project 68 million in 2003. They don't even mention cell phones, which will be a major user of flash. A major major user. Where are PDAs? The article is only a small indication of the vastness of this market. The big question for Sandisk is, will their patents hold up to keep the royalty income coming, or will someone find a way around them? So far they have held. They sufficient generality so that they may well hold for awhile, though I would obviously be interested in hearing your opinion about that (sorry I can't point you to the most important ones, maybe someone else on the board can, or maybe you can find it yourself; I know you have a lot of experience with that kind of stuff, but they have a lot of patents out there). Also the question that we have at different times wrestled with on this board, will the flash market eventually become like the DRAM market, or will the CFA and Sandisk's central position in the market help keep it from the worst aspects of that market? In the near future--over the next year to 18 months--I don't think that that is a problem. At some point, though, it may be, as there are several companies--Toshiba, Fujitsu, and at least one other whose name I am forgetting offhand--that are converting DRAM factories to flash factories, trying to become players in this burgeoning market. Samsung is also an aspiring player, not something I am happy about. But the next year should be extremely strong. Regards, Sam

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (9837)	3/26/2000 5:12:00 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 60323

Zeev, Here is another article on information appliances from Business Week, which helps to indicate the sheer size of the market potential for flash: Message 13284593 The article does not mention Sandisk, though it does mention IBM's microdrive and QNTM. Says that the microdrive will cost less $100 in a few years. By that time, flash will be even cheaper. Once Sandisk's JV with Toshiba actually fires up, their costs will drop pretty dramatically, I think. And so will the price of flash. The important thing for Sandisk will be to be first in manufacturing efficiencies. I'm betting on EH's crew to do that, and keep ahead of the cost curve. s.