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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chic_hearne who wrote (100074)	3/26/2000 7:32:00 PM
From: kash johal	Respond to of 1572086

Chic, Welcome to the thread. I enjoyed reading your post. I agree that some broker sentiment is very poor on AMD. As well as common retail investors - most who are not being pushed into AMD as a core investment. However the institutional ownership in AMD is UP DRAMATICALLY recently - last 6 months. So i suspect the smart money has started to notice AMD. If AMD keeps delivering then the picture is very bright. And those 10M shorts better start worrying. regards, kash

To: chic_hearne who wrote (100074)	3/26/2000 8:20:00 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572086

chic, I posed the question earlier, how can we get real time stats on short interest? I think this is a the key stat going into earnings. Are the shorts going to get worried and cover before earnings? Or are they going to get stuck trying to cover after earnings? Will there be a new wave of shorts moving in when the others cover, thus having a balancing effect? This is anyones guess, and will vastly impact the price of the stock more than any other factor over the next 4 weeks in my opinion. How will knowing the short stats help to know what the shorts will do in the next 4 weeks? Most shorts believe they are right and won't cover unless there is a preannoucement, or unusually positive news or a great earnings report. What is the exact %tage of "Most shorts", I don't have a clue. Q1 earnings could signal a paradigm shift depending on what AMD says. Let's assume they beat whisper numbers and say Q2 will be flat to nominally above Q1. I think this is a given, many others do here as well. Given this situation, manipulation of the stock will not be possible to save the shorts. I think there's a pile of money ready to move in if Q1 turns out good and a positive forcast is given. Much of my reasoning comes from talking with veteran investors like my uncle, the guys waiting for AMD to prove themselves Shorts will have to cover if the earnings report is good and they will cause a major pop in the stock price like when AMD announced that Q1 sales were going better than expected; that announcement caused an indication on the NYSE...meaning there were more buyers than sellers. That imbalance, was in part was caused by the shorts covering. But I think what you are asking indirectly is for reassurance that you made the right move in spite of the opinions of your successful uncle and his successful broker. My answer....there are times when experience is helpful and there times when its a drag. I have not been trading very long so I had no preconceived notions as to what kind of company was AMD when I first started posting here last June. However when I started investing in AMD, seasoned investors told me I was crazy....look at its history and its fundamentals. But I had bought into the AMD story. And now many of those same investors regret having taken the position that they did. I think you have to look at history and then the current facts. In spite of its history, the current facts indicate that AMD is pulling off a coup; that they are stealing market share from AMD and that the AMD story is for real. And until one of the major networks cancels or reschedules for primetime, I am in! BTW what is "little d".....Des Moines? ted

To: chic_hearne who wrote (100074)	3/26/2000 10:53:00 PM
From: Cirruslvr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572086

Chic - RE: "It was a pretty interesting conversation. When my uncle brought up AMD, his broker laughed and gave us 10 reasons not to buy AMD. All ten reasons were the history, the history, the history, etc. According to him, Q4 was a complete fluke. AMD has done this before, then they always disappoint the next quarter. They're a badly run company. So what about the current situation? As with many brokers, he didn't know shit about technology. According to him, INTC could destroy AMD anytime it wanted to. I asked about the Athlon, stating it looks like AMD finally got it right. He didn't understand what ONE good design was worth. Regardless, he strongly reccommended not buying AMD and my uncle listened." Wow, nice post! Welcome to you, Paul, That_crazy_Doug, and Pete to this thread! Unfortunately, what your Uncle's broker thinks is probably a common thing. From their view, there is no guarantee Q4 was NOT a fluke. Remember what happened in '98 - Q4 earnings were good, but AMD's execution sucked and the stock took a beating. Hopes were high, the stock had doubled, but when the "mask" problem became well known the stock lost half its value. Why should people who don't follow the stock as much as we do believe AMD can execute? As of now, they still have no reason to believe this year will be good. It is going to take some time for the opinions to change. When AMD posts flat to higher earnings this Q people may say the whole processor market was strong, demand was high because Intel said so, and as a result AMD just rode the wave. There will probably be many naysayers. For example, people always pick on Intel, but look at Intel now compared to a few months ago. I think the only way for AMD to convince the general market is to keep posting good earnings and executing as they have done so since the Athlon - practically flawless. I don't follow Apple, but I know it has had a massive run up after being a crappy stock a few years ago. Maybe someone who has followed Apple for a while can tell how long it took the general market to perceive Apple as a good company. As far as short interest, I think that is updated once a month. So hopefully we get an update before earnings on April 12.