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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: peter michaelson who wrote (10240)	3/29/2000 12:22:00 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78710

regarding REITs. This thread seems to have a diverse number with not too much overlap. (Although I'll guess some of us expect to be long term holders of LHO - which has been discussed here several times.) I have: ari krc udr mls fch lho Thread person here to listen to is likely Jim Clarke. Thread on SI for REIT discussion is Richard Barron's. JMO. Paul Senior

To: peter michaelson who wrote (10240)	3/29/2000 2:00:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 78710

REITs - I'd just buy a diversified mutual fund. If you want to pick names for a potential quickie "momo play" go with the ones institutions will buy first - EOP, EQR, HMT, PSA, SGP. (i.e. nothing under $2 billion of market cap). If you want to know what I own myself, I own shares in Fidelity's real estate fund (no endorsement, its in a retirement account with Fidelity and my options are limited) and SNH, a small cap REIT which is more of a 12 month workout than a play on the REIT sector - if there were a REIT rally it may participate or it may not - I don't consider that a reason to buy SNH, but it is the reason I bought the Fidelity fund in October. Three other smaller cap names I have always liked are CLP, CCG and EGP because they are extremely well managed companies. EGP looks relatively expensive now compared to the other two, especially CCG which looks like an absolute steal to me below 30. By the action in these stocks today it appears the type of investor who buys REITs long ago stopped listening to Abbey Joseph Cohen. She may be coming to understand that if she just says buy, buy, buy she is going to look like a genius until it ends, then she will wind up completely discredited and all anybody will remember will be her last buy call 10% into a 40-70% market decline (the one out of 20 that was wrong). On the other hand, if she backs off now just a little bit, it seems she has very little to lose if she's wrong but if she's right she'll be a legend - very few strategists are able to call both the bottom and the top. And by just making just a teensy weensy bear call, she preserves her options for the future. But when you see an analyst say BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY!, then BUY, BUT SELL A LITTLE BIT that might as well be a short the market call. Just my read - I am no big fan of AJC, but I've got to admit she's been very right.