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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nevin S. who wrote (6756)	3/29/2000 12:35:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Respond to of 12823

"So, does all this logically point to a shift in focus over time to data by the RBOCs, thus, creating a huge market opportunity for companies like AFCI?" Nevin- Yes. But there are literally hundreds of companies positioned to take advantage of the upgrades by the incumbent LEC(RBOCs included in this grouping), not just AFCI. Here is just a very small sampling. I want to update it and hope to find the time soon: Message 11577981 Your overall description of the twisted copper world is accurate. It's been happening almost the day that AT&T fired the first major shot and purchased it's first cableco. On that day the RBOCs knew they couldn't mess around anymore and play stupid games against their relatively minor competitors, the CLECs. The RBOCs had been battling the CLECs every since the 1996 Telecom Act was passed. But AT&T's huge gamble is, IMO, the only thing that really started the broadband war going. A war the consumer is guranteed to come out a winner. BTW, the second major shot was fired by AOL purchasing Time Warner. I still don't believe the significance of that move is fully understood. But that shot is an almost reverse situation of the corner you painted the RBOCs to be in. The AOL/Time Warner deal is what will make the ownership of the broadband last mile pipes more valuable than ever. Be it twisted copper, coaxial, or fixed wireless. Here are three posts that IMHO, explain the significance of the merger to all broadband SPs: Message 12518955 Message 12527515 Message 12528492 HTH. -MikeM(From Florida)

To: Nevin S. who wrote (6756)	3/29/2000 1:10:00 PM
From: lml	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Nevin: If I may . . . permit me to comment on some of the points raised in your post: With the cost of voice dropping, I see the only long term play for RBOCs is in data. Yes, voice will not be a profitability center for the RBOCs, & the RBOCs have been focusing on data as the mainstay for future growth for at least two years now, perhaps longer. I think that over time, people will migrate most of their voice traffic to wireless networks or the cost due to competition will decline leaving only the data segment for wireline carriers where they can make a buck. I believe going forward wireless connection will become an extension of your land-based line. That is, calls coming into your land based line can be optionally routed to your wireless connection. This is an example how RBOCs may utilize their terrestrial voice traffic to move into higher growth wireless markets. T has this vision, and yes, so does SBC. I used to think that demand for high-speed broadband Internet access was driving the market here but I now see that possibly the fear factor has set in among RBOCs. While this conclusion is not necessarily incorrect, the telecos did not necessarily focus only on consumer demand for broadband and the attached fear that if they didn't provision it, the competition would. IMHO, they focused more on the supplier demand to reach consumers and deliver the by-products of broadband services, such as the delivery of content (video, audio files), internet-based applications (ASPs), and revenue to be realized by providing the medium over which b2c e-commerce transactions would take place. You have to wonder, with all the new deals out there in wireless and low-cost LD service, are people talking more or is voice traffic migrating off traditional legacy networks[?] Yes. If you follow the latest SBC developments, you will note that over the longer term voice traffic will migrate from the legacy PSTN you reference to ATM by introducing voice over DSL in a couple years, particularly outside SBC's service area where they hope to "piggy-back" voice over CLEC data networks. I envision today's PSTN ultimately functioning as a backup network for voice communication during periods where the ATM network may be down for one reason or another. Ultimately, I think the ATM network may yield to an IP network, which will also make its own in roads into handling voice traffic, particularly via the MSO channel as most prominently evidenced by the efforts of T, Cox and CMCSA. So, does all this logically point to a shift in focus over time to data by the RBOCs, thus, creating a huge market opportunity for companies like AFCI? The shift of focus to data has already taken place. Now, its just a matter of execution. Rolling out the technology, making the investment in infrastructure, setting up the data networks to handle traffic. Its really all taking place as we speak. Yes, IMHO, AFCI will profit, but not so much due to the transition of voice traffic to data networks, but more so because of the market forces that dictate that a mere PSTN connection will no longer do. Providing a data solution is going to be the "anchor" service to any business or consumer account, with voice being a peripheral, but a "lifeline" important service. AFCI will profit because in order to deliver the bandwidth to deliver a myriad of broadband services the carriers will need to provision fiber as close to their subscribers as possible. The closer the fiber is to the subscriber, the fatter the copper pipe, and while I don't know enough about wireless networks, I can only presume the same principle would apply. The UMC family of products can just about handle almost any existing network the telecos offer today, and can permit the phased migration of those networks whether it be voice over PSTN, digital traffic over ISDN, to an ATM network at the teleco's own pace, while preserving the future utility of these legacy networks as backup. JMO.