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To: BigBull who wrote (63456)	3/30/2000 2:10:00 PM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 95453

jim_p and all - a question? At what point do the refiners start piling in here to by crude? Alot of analysts seem to getting bullish on the majors due to the possibility that the recent drop in crude will help refining margins. Will the refiners wait until the new crude comes in or start refining right here, right now. If they do, can't we expect some pretty hefty draws in crude over the next month? That article I posted earlier indicated that 90 million barrels need to be refined to meet gasoline needs this season. Where's it all going to come from?

To: BigBull who wrote (63456)	3/30/2000 3:03:00 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

BigBull, Crude prices will be a function for inventories from here on out. With crude storage below 300 MMBls, I don't believe oil will fall below $25.00 any time soon. If inventories stay low or go lower, I expect crude to drift back above $30.00. Reguardless of what OPEC does, crude will be above $40.00 sometime next year. Demand is a currently being understated and supply is currently being overstated. If you were an OPEC member, and you are trying to agree upon what your quota for your country is going to be, do you over estimate or under estimate what your true capacity is? The truth is inventories are lower today on a relative basis than they were in the 70's when gasoline was being rationed. Got MND.b yet? Happy trading Jim