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To: GST who wrote (98176)3/31/2000 3:22:00 PM
From: Robert Rose  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
<An inverted yield curve is the PRIMARY signal for a recession.>

How do you know this? I need to know more about why you believe this before I believe it.



To: GST who wrote (98176)4/1/2000 4:11:00 PM
From: Steve Yuan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
GST,

My understanding is that a complete inverted yield curve usually precedes recession and bear market. But right now the yield curve is only half reversed. Do you have any historical data to correlate a half reversed yield curve to market direction?

Steve



To: GST who wrote (98176)4/1/2000 9:19:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
Ease up, GST. Macroeconomic experts like you should know better.

The Treasury yield curve slopes down on the long end because of a shortage of debt supply at those maturities due to the budget surplus.

The same is not true of the corporate bond market.


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