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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Martin Atogho who wrote (21977)	4/1/2000 1:51:00 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

As you might know, this has already been done before, with others creating 2 threads to cover the Godzillas like Cmgi, Sfe, Icge, Itwo, etc, and also to discuss options on gorillas and kings. I just thought I would point out that I don't think we should be calling i2 (ITWO) a Godzilla. i2 is primarily a software provider that meets the criteria for being called a gorilla in the SCM space (proprietary open architecture) and derives their revenue in the same way as other proprietary open architecture software companies: i2's revenues 62% comes from license fees 26% comes from services 12% comes from maintenance Aspect, the company they are merging with, provides the content for Ariba, CommerceOne, IBM and many others via their product data management software which is one of the three value adding applications to ERP. The other two are supply chain management software and order configuration software. In effect, the merger of i2/Aspect combines the supply chain inbound with the outbound. The two dominant leaders in two of the three value adding application software spaces for ERP are joining forces in the software industry's largest merger to date. IBM is behind i2 and Ariba in a firm, major way (along with Siebel) which has Oracle standing all alone with it's arm around CommerceOne. Not to worry, my report which is coming spells it all out. It's a real game folks. Watch for the daily 'press release/slams' from Oracle to increase going forward. Don't confuse i2 with Ariba and CommerceOne. Too many have made this 'lump' comparison and I understand it is difficult to get a handle on, but hang on until I have time to proof and post my Hunt report. I'm a little disappointed in reading the latest report from Prudential's analyst, Doug Crook, who downgraded i2 last fall when it was at $45 a share (and dropped to $26 on the day he downgraded) only to pound the table and upgrade it this year on January 20 when it was at $210 and completed his 'trilogy' by downgrading i2 again this past Thursday (which knocked off some heavy points on Thursday and Friday). i2 has at least 7 times the combined revenues of the other two and with the acquisition of Aspect will come in at over $1 Billion in revenues this year alone. If anything, his report was more geared at how the revenues at Ariba and CommerceOne are or will be derived as well as valuation issues. He still 'likes' i2 according to his report. Hey, it's $100 cheaper after the past two weeks. Regardless, I don't see the justification for calling i2 a Godzilla with my understanding of the Godzilla business models and with i2's business model and proprietary open architecture technology. BB On a side note, each share of Aspect (ASDV) will convert to .55 shares of i2 (ITWO) when the merger is completed in June. That's just something to watch as most of the time since the merger was announced in mid-March Aspect has traded at a nice discount to that, although as of Friday's close that gap has narrowed.