To: russet who wrote (195 ) 4/2/2000 8:19:00 PM From: keith massey Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 960
Russett, Mendacity? .....So far I have not seen anything but facts posted to this thread. Before you start calling people liars please read the news releases or call the company and check the information for yourself (604 871 9909). If you do find something incorrect in a post please point this out to the rest of the thread. To date I have seen no incorrect information posted to the thread, unless you can point out something I have missed? Just for the record, CIBT does have earnings, check your Sedar reports. As for TOM (TS Telecom on the CDNX), I am very familiar with the stock and its history. For everyone not familiar TOM...don't confuse this company (TOM - TS Telecom on the CDNX) with TOM.COM on the GEM exchange, they are two different companies. TOM is a CDNX listed company that spun off their 100% own subsidiary (TS International Co., Ltd.) onto the GEM exchange last December. TS International (TST) is a distributor, manufacturer and systems integrator of telecommunications equipment and is TOM's major holding (they also have 30% of another small Teleco. Company -Shanghai Hua Cheng). For anyone that doesn't follow this area, the telecommunication equipment business is very competitive and often does not attract high multiples on earnings that many technology and internet companies demand (for reference look at MTM -Mitec Telecom or AAH - Aastra Technologies, both on the TSE). TOM announced on Oct 23, 1999 that they were listing TST on the GEM exchange. TOM was selling at .60 at this time. TOM announced on November 23, 1999 that they intended to sell a 36% stake in TST for $22 million Cdn ($14.8 million US) through the IPO (79.2 million shares at $1.50HK). They based the IPO pricing on a price/earnings multiple is 8.8 times on a weighted average basis and 11 times on a pro forma fully diluted basis. These are fairly standard P/E ratios for the industry. In other words, the company attempted to fully price the stock based on the fundamentals at that time. At that time of the GEM listing (Dec 2, 1999), TOM had 20.2 million shares outstanding and approximately 23 fully diluted. So using simple math....... On the day of the IPO they would get $22 million Cdn. from the IPO. TOM's stake in the company would be worth 64%/36% * $22 million Cdn = $39 million Cdn Total asset of TOM on the day of the listing should have been $61 million Cdn minus the $2 million listing fee (they raised 20.2 million from the IPO). $59 million / 20.2 shares outstanding = $2.92 $59 million / 23 fully diluted = $2.56 I guess some other people had done the math because in the two weeks leading up to the GEM listing TOM ran from 0.60 to a high of $3.25 on November 29, 1999 ... which is 25% above the expected asset value on the day of the IPO. Of course since the company had already fully priced the subscription, the stock did not take off like a rocket like many investors had hoped. Instead, the GEM exchange listing did a quick two day spike on the GEM exchange and them it started to fall off sharply. It ended up bottoming at $1.24HK a few weeks later... 20% below the IPO price (1.50HK) (http://210.176.154.29/cgi-bin/stock.cgi). Of course people holding TOM panicked when they saw the GEM listing falling and bailed on TOM on mass, causing a quick price drop, major stops being hit and not to mention a heck of a lot of shorting. Once the panic selling stopped the stock ended up slowly climbing back to better reflect the asset value of its GEM holdings. One thing to note.... Of the 18 stocks currently listed on the GEM exchange only 5 are currently selling below the IPO price... and TS International is one of these companies . I don't think you can use the performance of TS International on the GEM exchange to reflect on how SEG will perform because they are completely different businesses. As a point of interest, of the 18 companies currently listed on the GEM there are 6 that are selling at 100-1000% above their IPO price. So how will SEG perform on the GEM exchange? Based on everything we have discussed I would expect it to perform very well. However, if one wanted to look at valuations of SEG near the GEM listing date, then you might want to refer to TOM (CDNX). Remember, investors were willing to pay 25% above the expected asset value in the few days leading up to the GEM IPO. If you use similar math for CPT you will get a price of $25 Cdn based on shares outstanding or $15 Cdn based on shares fully diluted. Will CPT be valued the same as TOM leading up to the IPO, I really don't know. But as Mark Twain once said "History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes". As for your statements on the GEM exchange, please refer to post Message 13188762 Best Regards KEITH