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To: c.hinton who wrote (6159)4/2/2000 7:01:00 PM
From: KevRupert  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11568
 
Good points, Chinton. I agree that your points have validity, and that we should learn upon our past mistakes.

But to play devil's advocate, what if you are wrong? What if productivity gains are creating a new way of business? How does that impact stocks that are selling at 8x - 18x earnings? What about wcom? What about companies that are selling at p/e ratios that are less than their growth rates.

The times that you discuss had wars going on, didn't have the technology base that we do now, and the world was not interlinked as it is now. Information is spread in seconds, and the quality of life has improved drastically.

If I walked in your shoes, I would understand your stories and rationalization better. But my goal is to make money. Obtaining 7% from government bonds doesn't offer enough for me. Bonds over time have proven to be a signicantly less of an investment than stocks. Age is a factor - in determining one's portfolio. I set tight stop limits, and invest in GARP companies.

Just because something happened once, doesn't mean it will happen again. Situations do change. Albeit, many companies are currently overvalued. I think it is unfair to simply imply that because a crash happened in 1929, that it will happen again. Imagine the fortunes that were lost if people avoided the markets since 1929.

I understand the risks, and have made money. I've taken profits. I didn't hide from Y2k fears, and I'd rather have my money in an Ebbers company than lending it to Clinton & his men for 7%/annum. No thanks.

That's the end of my devil's advocacy. advalorem