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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (22091)	4/3/2000 2:24:00 AM
From: FLSTF97	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

The minority ownership in Globalstar continues to look more promising than this time last year. The full complement of satellites were not yet launched. They're now in place though the company continues to operate in an environment of bad press due to Iridium's impending bankruptcy should a white knight not step up to the plate. Does anyone know if Iridium shut down their service to customers yet? The issue of Globalstar's past-due payables to Qualcomm in the amount of $500 million continues to be the biggest single red flag associated with the Q. Mike, Iridium will splash the satellites over the next year and shut down service a week or two ago. Globalstar is getting off to a slow start with Schwartz taking some heat and seeming combatent with the questioners. Although private discussions a while ago with some Alcatel people lead me to believe they had a better mouse trap, the customer base may be very weary having been burned not once but twice in the last several months. FATBOY

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (22091)	4/3/2000 10:15:00 AM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>>My how things change! Qualcomm's PSR is now 26 thanks to the market's greater appreciation for the company's prospects.<< True, but also keep in mind that the sale of QCOM's two divisions has had, and will have, the effect of driving up the PSR number also. That fact gives us a hint why raw numbers like PSRs can be misleading. Super report Mike, Thanks!! StockHawk

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (22091)	4/3/2000 10:31:00 AM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike: Since the weekend is past and I assume I am out of Uncle Frank's penalty box, thanks for your "Qualcomm Then and Now" post. Congratulations on a fine analysis. (Of course as your sometime agent, I am a push over in the applause department). But even trying to be as objective as I can it seems to me to be thorough and helpful the anyone interested in the Q. If you had been able to run it by me my suggestions would have been on the periphery not the meat. The substance of the mainstream is accurate and perceptive to the best of my knowledge. On Globalstar: The Globalstar discussion needed updating, and that has already been done. I will comment in addition, since I have followed both Loral and Globalstar for years, the situation is normal - tenuous. This area is extremely risky but the rewards may be large, if it works. That very much remains to be seen, but I for one am hanging in. For those interested (including you yourself Mike for update purposes, there are Globalstar and Loral threads on SI. The G* thread is active, the Loral, not. The importance for the Q is marginal IMO but worth paying some modest attention to. Other comments: As you know well Mike and some others here do also, my primary interest in learning about technologies and in choosing wireless and fiberoptics as areas of investment focus is data - the rapid transmission of data. You also know I came to this as an offshoot of the days when we discussed "networking" on the old AOL/Fool thread and I found the discussion too narrow. Qualcomm was the only gorilla I could find in these areas and ironically it was initially at least a wireless voice CDMA gorilla, not a major data transmitter. But early on I read that Dr Andrew Viterbi was working on separating data from voice for more efficient wireless transmission alongside voice. His brainchild has emerged as HDR and he in turn has retired. Qualcomm is as you say a full, card carrying, CDMA (voice) gorilla now. Certified and solid. What is of even more interest though is the prospect of the Q as a potential (or "candidate") gorilla in wireless data - particularly wireless mobile data - and a key connector to the internet (intranet) - what I call the wireless / internet (intranet) nexus. While the overall opportunities for CDMA and the Q are huge in the areas of its current gorilla status (Japan, China, South America, Australia, and North America - including Mexico), they are dwarfed IMO but the future the Q has in data. And this is fascinating because it will develop over the next 6 months to one year. I would suggest that your update a year from now will reflect considerable progress in this area. Mike, on handhelds and "smart" phones, Qualcomm has been extremely careful and intelligent IMO to keep its options and "luck lines" open. In particular, the JV with Microsoft was particularly smart, to cooperate with MSFT without having to go with MSFT's "win CE" exclusively. As a result, Palm is imbedded in its original phone, and Symbian or Psion's operating system (which IMO is the one to watch even though "European") and even WAP as represented by Phone.com is available. This is also an area to watch carefully. Another huge opportunity. Enough. Rambled on too long and threw in too much of my own ideas and opinions, but the temptation was there, so I took it. Again, many thanks. Best as always. Cha2

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (22091)	4/3/2000 11:07:00 AM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 54805

Mike: (and whoever else may be interested in a potential Q scenario): Message 13334215 Best. Cha2

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (22091)	4/3/2000 4:54:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, On a day when there is not much to be cheered about, the high point is the 2 exceptional posts you authored. The first is the "Front Office" update and the second is "QCOM" revisited. As for SEBL, I took my first took a position on 2/14 of this year and have picked away at adding to it 6 times. Although my YTD has touched into the red in the last few days, it was marginally "green" a bit ago and I remind myself that as a ltb&h type that I am convinced that it is a gorilla and I do not have to worry inordinately about the long haul, for that reason. Likewise QCOM which I first purchased 15 months ago. I am convinced that it is the CDMA gorilla (certainly not a wireless gorilla yet) and I am glad that you are able to conclude that "the (CDMA subscriber growth) tornado continues". That was my sense but I hadn't really evaluated the numbers. I too was disappointed "about CDMA subscriber growth ... the most recent quarter". I am not going to concern myself too much about the quarter to quarter results but will be interested in the year ending numbers and whether or not it remains the "fastest growing" wireless technology "as the base of CDMA subscribers gets larger and larger." China kicking in, continued growth in Latin America, starts in other regions, all become important in watching this metric. The US remains important. It is an important and positive fact that we have a second national CDMA network taking shape to combat the national TDMA network . We need to be mindful that through M&A we have a national GSM network shaping up (VSTR) and that last year because of the C-Block reauction this network will eventually complete a national footprint. We also have a wild card out there in that SBC & BellSouth operate both TDMA and GSM networks, and these networks along with AT&T appear to be destined to converge in EDGE. For the short term, I think that earnings and projected earnings are going to be exceptionally important, as we complete the transition to the new business model. I was very satisfied with last quarter earnings and was candidly surprised with the apparently severe but necessary warning about seasonal softness in the current quarter. I am of the opinion that the warning will pay dividends in the long run. I am intrigued with digital cinema. HDR a potential plus. Globalstar makes me a tad nervous, but I am hopeful, if not convinced, that it will pay off medium to long haul. I am pleased to see Qualcomm headed for SIM based global roaming. This was a long time coming but I think it will open up a revenue stream previously denied (dual mode handsets in GSM land). Looking out in the crystal ball it looks like cdma as the dominant wireless air interface is a year or 2 further out than I would have projected 9 months ago (2008+ v. 2006). For certain the migration path from cdmaOne to cdma2000 is an easier one than the one faced by GSM & TDMA networks. This gets me a bit confused from time to time because it is still not clear to me whether 1X is 2.5G or 3G and consequently when I see summary projections of technology adoption I am not real clear as to whether 1X is in the 2.5G projection or the 3G projection. I rely on our diligent thread mate, Cha2, to advise on these issues. As for FUD, it is still with us, but I am of the opinion that all sides practice it, and will continue to do so. Ultimately, how WCDMA (hate that generic term) IP, royalty rates, and cross licensing shakes out, are of extreme importance to all of us. For the moment I will watch and wait, content in the knowledge that Qualcomm's IPR position is VERY strong and Qualcomm will defend it to the bitter end. - Eric -