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To: Telemarker who wrote (63664)4/3/2000 10:12:00 AM
From: Think4Yourself  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Joe Kernen on CNBC just made an offhand comment about APC going down. What he "essentially" said is that the traders might not be thinking clearly because the transaction would be immediately accretive to earnings.

Oil industry ANALysts not thinking clearly?? Nooooo! Say it ain't so Joe, say it ain't so! Even if they mostly operate independantly after the merger it's a great deal. Just eliminate duplicate administration.

Wouldn't mind picking up another 10K shares at 1/8 but buying support on UPR has been growing in the last 15 minutes. Guess either the news is getting out or most of the sheep have now been fleeced.

Slider: Not sure VPI is still a great target. That stock has been on a tear lately (and deservedly so)! I was SOOOOOO lucky to get in last week minutes before it started.



To: Telemarker who wrote (63664)4/3/2000 10:27:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
UPR/APC - good for Lindahl & Exec's or shareholders ?

UPR had $18-$20 price targets and was $19 at last years rally peak & has since improved its financial structure - APC needs to go to $50 for UPR to be getting "any" substantial premium imo...

I think what people should watch for here - is how the Street interprets how Insiders feel about the "True" market value of their companies.

UPR willing to take $15-$17 here is not great news imo... the saving grace is that perhaps the Street will look on UPR as a case of the exec's taking the usual perks offered them in these types of deals and perhaps being less focused on shareholder value than we'd like to see them be...

With UPR - Take the money & run - find a laggard imho; for me - if if aint broke (trading system) - don't try to fix it... gotta stay with whats working now.

Small caps & laggards are still the next big breakout stories. Those stocks in mid single digits who are allways $20 stocks at peak cycle - like UFAB are the gifts here.

There are huge numbers of bids out all across the sector - there is going to be HUGE contacts awards in Q2-3 - the upside on this news for the UFAB GIFI FGH *yes FGH*, VRC, GLBL, HOFF will be HUGE ! These stocks will be the % leaders just like they were in this period of the last cycle.

It really is not that hard - we've seen the BJS SII's of the world reach lofty price targets and will stall here a bit untill earnings catch up to valuations; but now - the later cycle play's valuations so lag the mo-mo fav's that they will get the move next - as they will be getting huge contract awards in Q2-3; one has to buy them now as you won't be able to chase them fast enough in late 2000 imo.

Personally, I like the nuts & bolts plays of GIFI/UFAB to FGH - who can be a $10-$12 stock on repair & refurb - but, must have those $150 M+ newbuilds to be a $20-$40 stock once again. I like UFAB valuationwise the best. Smaller cap, lower liquidity - but it trades 75-100K volume often enough to get in & out - and its a buy & hold now on a Q2-3 breakout - sell on the news play anyhow...

Loaded in HAL RIG FLC PGO for my OSX plays - don't expect to trade these, as they are values within the OSX and will really move up at peak cycle valuations.

FLC is THE home run play to peak cycle - literally a triple to PRESENT ANALYST price targets !?!?!? - anyone else wonder how SSB can have a 3 bagger price target, but not rate it a top buy ?