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Strategies & Market Trends : Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stan s. who wrote (91851)	4/3/2000 12:38:00 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Respond to of 108040

Stan, I got money in tech betting your theory is right. Interesting comment on B2C stocks. "But without question, the most at-risk sector is B2C generally and etailers specifically. Three warning signs are worth noting: a plunge in the stock price, a market cap down to sub-$200 mln levels, and the lack of an established brand name that a potential acquirer might covet. Companies that fit the bill? There are plenty: BGST, BFLY, BYND, CYSP, SRCH, VSHP, and MTHR, to name a few. If you are an owner of shares in these companies or others that fit the bill, do some research. Does the company have enough cash to continue operations for at least a year? For many, the answer is no. And does the company have the ability to raise new funds? Here again, the answer for many is no given their poor performance to date. These are good candidates for a going concern statement, and ultimately for bankruptcy. Many will survive, probably even some that we have mentioned, but many more will not." From briefing.com Picking survivors in the B2C sector would be difficult. Jack

To: stan s. who wrote (91851)	4/3/2000 1:20:00 PM
From: Bryan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 108040

NAZ starting to look ugly, Stan. I don't like the failure at 4400 and then 4350. If we don't see a close above 4350 or better yet, 4400 then we are in for some additional losses. I agree with you about earnings around the corner and the possibility that a good round of numbers will add that much more strength to the move back up. But with a few big warnings already and the reaction of some companies when they beat the street (and get hammered anyway), I'm skeptical about how much we can rally based only on earnings. There are external macro forces that are moving the tech market lower....e.g. higher interest rates, higher oil, sector rotation, etc. There will likely be pressure on technology issues for some time going forward. I'm seriously considering moving more $$$ into value play (old economy) stocks and out of technology. This week will be a deciding factor for me. The emphasis for the time being seems to be preservation of capital as opposed to picking bottoms or averaging down. Recent purchases of MO and KEY, as well as additions to HAS, NTRS, and DIS in the last few months or so have saved me some real $$$$. Of course, I'm still gasping for breath in several others....SAGI and SIGM to name a couple. And watching the retracements in ARTT, INPH and GMGC have been a little frustrating, but that's why you take some profits off the table once in a while (to grant you a golden average). Good luck. BTW, always appreciate your tech analysis. Best, B