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To: MSB who wrote (240)4/4/2000 12:32:00 PM
From: J. Conley  Respond to of 955
 
MSB,

You write,

>>>Given the recent carnage (so far the Naz correction has surpassed anything I would have expected so the word "carnage" seems appropriate to me), is there perhaps a possibility LDP is getting whacked because of a perception that IPO's going public may not get the richer valuations out of the gate like we've all seen over the last six months?<<<

Certainly this is a factor, but in my view you must look at the company as an overall entity. Every division of the company is experiencing very healthy growth. Take a look at the growth of the life insurance and annuities, the fund management, and financial advisory services.

I also believe they will continue to make money on VC in the future. Remember they are in at pre-IPO prices, and will continue to have positive cash flow from other businesses. I also believe the company is quite cheap (at this market cap) even if the IPO's are not all that successful (though I believe at least a few will be very successful).

I also did not expect this kind of freefall in the Naz. I also think the selling is a matter of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Don't need to tell anyone it's indiscriminate and across the board. I do not know when the selling will end, but in the longer term IMO a buyer at this price will be nicely rewarded. There will be the day sentiment changes.

I noticed you state "all comments received regarded as merely speculative." Like I always say, do your own DD. I think if you really closely look at this one, you will like what you see.



To: MSB who wrote (240)4/4/2000 9:45:00 PM
From: J. Conley  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 955
 
New research by FBR dated 3/31:

I have not yet had time to carefully read the report. It is quite lengthy, and is a thorough analysis. One reason I like this company is because of the business model and that the company as a whole is growing nicely. I think that is thoroughly explained in the report.

Target is raised to 42. IMO, this analyst has been, and is, fairly conservative.

research.fbr.com

The non-VC businesses are discussed and given an independent valuation target of around $15.00 per share.
This does not include anything from VC including the current private equity $2.80 per share, and the public equity, say another $5.00 per share. So, using these numbers you would get $22.80 per share with no multiple on the private equity. That is, with all private equity investments at cost, no IPO's (even if an IPO traded at the offering price, LDP still has a gain).

One other interesting note about the report is that LDP is trading at a BV multiple that is LESS THAN other comparable pure insurance companies. That's even with its ROE of 45%, its growth, its track record, and its considerable stable of what most consider to be very good private equity.

Hey, I thought value stock investing was back in vogue. Maybe Heartland Value Fund will be buying more LDP again.
Where's the Tiger Fund when you need it?