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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (34716)	4/5/2000 1:48:00 PM
From: Mark Duper	Respond to of 70976

A Rotation Into Semis By James J. Cramer 4/5/00 1:39 PM ET Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer. Out of socks and into SOX? Out of mush and into MoSH? Let me explain. I am seeing sellers of the consumer staple stocks and buyers of the semiconductors. People don't seem to want the thin gruel of the foods and instead they crave the Morgan Stanley High-Tech 35 index, or MSH. This rotation is important because, frankly, there isn't enough money around to take up everything. When you see the drugs down, the corollary, the biotech and high-rolling tech, start to ramp up. As the latter is filled with bad holders (meaning levered players) they get relief, which then allows the analysts to come out of their pillboxes (they long ago abandoned foxholes because the white phosphorous shelling burns to holy heck!) to recommend their wares. Then you come in the next day and Europe is up and we get reliquified worldwide. Suddenly hope springs eternal. And it is just as crowded on the way up as it was on the way down. Next thing you know, we are back in a world where earnings matter, because it is earnings season, and we live happily ever after. For a couple of days.

To: TREND1 who wrote (34716)	4/5/2000 3:12:00 PM
From: Mephisto	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Thank you! Thank you, Larry! You have been on my people list even though I don't own MU. I like to hear what you say about the semis. Sincerely, Mephisto

To: TREND1 who wrote (34716)	4/8/2000 11:21:00 AM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

INVERTED CURVE means RECESSION WATCH !!! On Friday 4/7/2000 the year 30 and 3 month rates became INVERTED. Market 101 says that almost all RECESSIONS are preceded by an INVERTED INTEREST RATE CURVE. If at the end of May 2000 , the Feds raise short term rates another .25% the INVERSION will become even more. Let me say it this way: If a recession is RAIN, then the INVERSION are the clouds. Clouds are needed before rain can happen, but not all clouds produce rain. geocities.com