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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (45151)	4/5/2000 6:01:00 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

heinz I got this from fidelity last night which follows the comment (b) in your post Anway I sure felt good about the market after this, but not enough to hold any stocks overnight <g>. Staying focused on long term objectives in cash at the moment works for me. Subj: Peter Lynch on Recent Market Volatility Date: 4/4/00 9:14:15 PM US Mountain Standard Time From: Fidelity.Investments@fidelity.m0.net (Fidelity.com) Reply-to: Fidelity.Investments@fidelity.m0.net To: lmfaz@aol.com Dear PHILLIP FINSTERWALD, As you may be aware, the market saw unusually high activity today. After large-scale selling today, which left both the Dow and Nasdaq down over 500 points each at noon (4.5% and 13.6%, respectively), both markets have surged back to within 75 points of their opening (down 57.09 points/less than 1% and 74.79 points/1.8%, respectively). No one can predict with certainty what the market will do. However, at Fidelity our business is built on the belief that long-term investing is the best way to accomplish your goals. In short, stay focused on long-term goals. We'd like to offer you some fundamental principles from our Vice Chairman Peter Lynch on how to prepare for and weather this volatility. Please visit FIDELITY.COM for "Investing in Volatile Markets: A Discussion with Peter Lynch" as well as the interview "Peter Lynch on Recent Market Volatility" held today, Tuesday, April 4, to get his most timely views. Although much has changed since Fidelity first opened its doors 50 years ago, the fundamentals of responsible investing remain the same. It all comes down to investing responsibly.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (45151)	4/5/2000 6:18:00 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Don't ya just love those "pro-forma" (new era accounting) numbers posted by Yahoo tonight? Back out investment income (equal to over 2/3rds of income from operations) and add back in goodwill (we are being VERY generous to add back in that monster goodwill from such ludicrously priced acquisitions as Broadcast.com and GeoSchities) and you get about $49 mil divided by 613 mil shares for .08 "non pro-forma" from operations. But wait, there's more. I'd add in the 249 mil options outstanding at a $16.20 strike price to the basic share count of 594 mil (that's right - options = 50% of shares outstanding!!!!!!!!!!!!!) for a net income of just under .06 per share from operations! With projected income of even $1.2 bil by 2004 (just as likely a pipe dream), you are still talking about a company valued at 113X 2004 EPS (counting options in share count) IF THE STOCK DOESN'T MOVE UP by even .01 per share in the next FOUR YEARS!!!!

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (45151)	4/6/2000 8:40:00 AM
From: Dave Shares	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, With respect to comparisons to 1929: A few months ago, I read Galbraith's book on the crash (I listened to it on audiotapes, so I could have been daydreaming at times), and it is very interesting to see some of the parallels in place right now, but the more I think about it, we may be a ways off still from the ultimate downturn which I totally expect, and no matter what I think, my trading will continue to be based on total overall caution. I think we are beginning to see early signs of economic slowdown, but I don't know that these signs have manifested themselves to the declining state of the economy in 1929. I recall Galbraith stating that stocks continued to soar even though there were clear signs of a faltering economy. Secondly, it remains unclear to me what the role of the massive retirement investments will be in the market, for which there is no comparison to 1929. Maybe it would actually magnify any decline via redemptions. Thirdly, I am not clear as to whether one can find any current peer to the investment trusts of the late 1920s. Galbraith described these as totally leveraged equity instruments whose true value was a fraction of the value of the underlying securities. Are there instruments today that mirror the investment trusts of the 1920s ? Maybe I should view all the companies without earnings as being like those investment trusts as they have negligible book value ? Lastly, I continue to wonder about this election year phenomenon that tends to keep the market propped up. Maybe another year passes before a true burst to this market. Who knows ? I sure don't. Best wishes always, David