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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (4012)	4/6/2000 9:10:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

But are W-CDMA and cdma2000 really so similar? If they are, why didn't Japan Telecom and DDI pick cdma2000; and why is SK Telecom from Korea collaborating with Nokia? Why are the Hong Kong and Chinese operators so close to Nokia and Ericsson on 3G development? If you assume that second-generation CDMA automatically gives a company an edge in the third generation CDMA, the current situation makes no sense. Nortel and Motorola are being marginalized in the 3G competition; yet they have a far superior track record in second-generation CDMA to Ericsson and Nokia. This drama is not developing the way it was scripted - presence in the IS-95 market does not seem to be an advantage in the 3G market. The only plausible explanation I can find is this; W-CDMA really is another kettle of fish. You don't get any special edge in the W-CDMA market by excelling in the IS-95 market. You have to address W-CDMA separately; which demands a 3-5 year R&D effort. Which is something few companies have. So without teeth and claws - Maurice, does Qualcomm have any W-CDMA chipset deals? Are they taking part in the Japanese and Chinese trial networks that are already in operation? As far as I know, the answer is negative. And this means that my 3G chipset bet is Texas Instruments. I don't think any company can turn on a dime when it comes to 3G R&D. You can't make up the lost years in a couple of months. And if Qualcomm really has dropped the W-CDMA ball, they may end up with 10-40% of the W-CDMA chipset market. Not 90%, which they could have gotten in the cdma2000 market. This is what we call "an issue" in Finland. Yet analysts from Paine Webber and some other houses seem blissfully unuaware of the implications. Mobile operators are like a buffalo herd - when they start a stampede, it's very hard to stop it by hand-waving. The German second-tier mobile operator Mobilcom recently announced that they are willing to bid 12 billion dollars for one of the six W-CDMA licenses coming up for an auction this summer. That amount of D-marks kind of makes you think that W-CDMA exists. Where is the commitment of this calibre for cdma2000? Right now, Latin American countries are considering the unthinkable; opening up the 1800 MHz frequenzy for GSM, which would give them an opportunity to implement the European/Asian W-CDMA in an identical format. Nobody saw this coming one year ago: South America was supposed to follow the US model and go with a TDMA/CDMA mix. That continent is now contemplating a full revolt. They are seeing the W-CDMA tsunami building on the shores of Japan and soon about to wash over China and Europe. All of a sudden, they don't seem to have a lot of faith in the US model. Why? Is it because they have seen what DDI saw in their internal evaluation process? This is the same panic attack Hutchison is having in Australia. Just after they have completed their CDMA network there, they are announcing plans for a GSM network "for mobile internet technology". When you put together what has happened during the last two months in Australia, South America, Japan, China and Europe, you get the roadmap to the future. And that future isn't what it used to be back in the dim old days of 1999. The new future has a surprisingly Finnish flavor. Tero

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (4012)	4/7/2000 1:58:00 PM
From: Raymond	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

Maurice! Dream on.NTT-Docomo and Japan Telecom will have a nationwide network deployed next year with a massive amount of radio base stations.Europe will follow in beginning of 2002.One of the reason DDI gave for choosing WCDMA instead of CDMA-2000 was that WCDMA deployment date was much earlier. Another question is if WCDMA and is-95 is very similar or not.There are som similarities after all both are CDMA systems so some basic concepts are the same.But there it ends.The mapping of logical channels to transportchannels and onto physical channels are totally different.It's a totally new standard with a lot of new concepts.For example the use of codemasks on the broadcatschannel for fast access to the network.How you use packetdata. where you are connected to a commonchannel when you don't have so much data to receive and send and then up to a dedicated channel when you are sending more data.Ö remember when you said that WCDMA-people didn't know what they were doing because they didn't use Turbo coding.I tried at that time to explain that the standard was not set yet.Turbo coding is of used ,for example for UDI applicatations(video). IS-95 and WCDMA has not more in common then US-TDMA and GSM.If CDMA-2000 and WCDMA is so similar it's very strange that the contracts so far has gone to Nokia nad Ericsson that haven't been involved in IS-95(Ericsson just recently). We have four contracts so far awarded. 1. Finland 2G,3G consortium Ericsson main supplier,Nokia the other. 2 Aland ,part of Finland. Ericsson only supplier. 3. Docomo 2 foreign(Ericsson,Lucent) and a couple of japanese. 4. Japan Telecom. Ericsson,NEC and Nokia suppliers.Ericsson only in the beginning. It doesn't look very good for the american IS-95 suppliers /R