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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (4014)	4/6/2000 12:39:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

What is the exact date of the 4 for 1 stock. I understand it is sometime next week but trying to determine the date it trades post split. TIA.

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (4014)	4/6/2000 9:57:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

I think you're making a lot of fairly persuasive logical arguments Tero,and at the moment WCDMA certainly seems to be winning the race. I wonder about a few things though, like whether it isn't a bit too early to declare who the winners and losers will be. Who would have thought for example that Ericsson would be almost wiped off the handset scene on such short notice, that Nokia would have such a difficult time building CDMA ASICs, that QCOM would still hold such a high percentage of that market, that GPRS/EDGE extend the life of GSM, I could go on. As you've presumably noticed I'm of the opinion that WCDMA poses a serious challenge for QCOM and makes me wonder about the business model. On the surface it seems that some combination of championing CDMA2000 and the royalty payments so offend everyone that nobody wants to partner with QCOM on WCDMA. ANd I think it's definitely going to turn out to be a problem if QCOM ends up not participating in any of the fully loaded field trials. I suspect however that is not how things will turn out. You've been writing convincing post mortems for years now but events never follow suit.It looks like QCOM should earn in the neighborhood of 1 bil dollars this year, a nice little sum to devote to research.The patent portfolio provides plenty of bargaining power,as does real life CDMA knowhow. I think IJ is too smart to let the company be marginalized. My bet is that the Q/Ericy partnership already extends to WCDMA, that they're just being quiet about it. We'll see.

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (4014)	4/7/2000 1:43:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 34857

Are W-CDMA and cdma2000 really so similar you ask? Well, according to Irwin Jacobs, these two are so similar that they can fit into the same circuit board architecture with not enough waste, cost or inefficiency to worry about. That was about 6 months ago or more, in a live Web CDMA Development Group presentation in which I got to ask a question at some absurd hour in the morning, 4.30am or thereabouts. It was weird sitting in my dark little cave, where I usually live in anonymity, typing a question and having it read out live and having Irwin looking down the camera to cyberspace, answering it. Despite being the expert I am in erlangs, ASIC architecture, photon phragmenters and stuff, Irwin didn't totally convince me, but I decided to believe it since Ericy and everyone else who knows, such as Vodafone etc all seem to think along the same lines too. That was why the chip rate was compromised to such a close match that it would work in a single multimode handset without undue cost and hassle. So yes, they are very similar. I'd be amazed if Ericy isn't working closely with MightyQ! to get CDMA working really well and in a big hurry. Ericy has probably given Q! the W-CDMA stuff so that Q! can supply Ericy with ASICs. I think the reason Japan Telecom and others are talking W-CDMA is that the battle lines are being drawn between service providers who will adopt one or other and a huge turf war will ensue to see who gets the lion's share. Q! will play both sides of the fence with multifunctional ASICs, so will Ericy, so will Nokia with single and multimode handsets. If W-CDMA wins, the service providers backing that will be able to trundle over the cdma2000 network operators. Vice versa too! Minute price wars and WWeb options and content will be all part of the game. It is going to be a very big game. IS-95 operators will get a smooth upgrade to either cdma2000 or W-CDMA. GSM operators will likewise be able to adopt either but will cop the full infrastructure costs which many don't seem to understand are going to be much more expensive than the simpler upgrade for the CDMA operators, no matter whether cdma2000 or W-CDMA is chosen. Maybe QUALCOMM doesn't have any W-CDMA ASIC orders, but that doesn't mean they won't produce the best ones. Maybe Texas Instruments can do okay, but that's what competition will determine. Ericy will be going like mad to get all modes ready and that will include cdma2000. Nokia won't be left out of cdma2000 either. As you say, when the buffalo herd adopts a network type, it will take more than a bit of esoteric difference to overcome the importance of commonality. If the stampede is in the direction of cdma2000 or W-CDMA, then even if the other is slightly better, it'll be trampled. The power of networks is substantial. But the direction of the stampede is far from clear at present. QUALCOMM, Ericy and Nokia all seem to have contrived to be well-positioned for whichever direction the service providers charge. But my bet remains on cdma2000 because of the Q! CDMA head start and obvious success so far. W-CDMA still seems to be in the realm of smokescreen to me - lots of hissing, smoke, noise and FUD. Nokia is still an also-ran in CDMA. Ericy is still back in the starting-gate [despite inventing CDMA back in the 1890s]. Bidding for spectrum doesn't make W-CDMA real, even if the bid is multi-billions of DM. The spectrum could always be used for cdma2000 if W-CDMA is a lemon. Neither do press releases or trial networks make it real. I don't think you'll find service providers hand over multibillions for spectrum if they have no back-out clause should W-CDMA not prove to be adequate and they'd prefer cdma2000. This will be a network battle rather than a chip rate battle. The biggest, best and first network will win. It's no use speaking Finnish or Japanese in a world dominated by English even if English is an absurdly inconsistent, difficult and complex language. The network effect of English is just too powerful. The same with cdma2000 and W-CDMA. Even if one is slightly more efficient, the network effect will dominate. I suppose the giant wireless mergers are to do with network power. Say I, Maurice