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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spartex who wrote (30946)	4/6/2000 1:38:00 PM
From: John Stockman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Novell is just being a DOG here. Looks like every Tech stock is making good gains today, and here I see NOVL up just a small fraction. Talking about your lack of support. The only hope now is for a good buyout. Please bring us $35 or more per share. The other way to look at it is: Could a person make a quick buck buying here, and hope some news comes out that moves us up from this point? Good Luck ALL

To: Spartex who wrote (30946)	4/10/2000 8:18:00 PM
From: Spartex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

From Paine Webber analyst--- * The Novell investment thesis is both complex and risky. In the end, the risky execution issues overweigh the low valuation, strong technology assets, management talent and exposure to growth markets. * Novell is faced with repositioning its business model from one which was driven predominately by its NOS (priced at $179/seat) to one which is focused on eServices and leveraging its directory product, NDS (eDirectory priced at $2/seat-object). Novell is making this shift while Microsoft Windows 2000 is attacking its traditional NOS business and packaging Active Directory, an alternative for Novell's NDS directory, for free. The transition from the "inside world" to the "outside world" is difficult to predict -- 62% of product revenues are tied to NetWare. * Novell has covered a lot of new ground over the past year with the launch of several new products into the marketplace, including eDirectory and ICS (Internet Caching System), a new technology called DigitalMe, and iChain, which was just launched in February. We expect Novell's entry into the NAS market in mid-2000. * We lack confidence in the outlook for the "inside world" which Novell's financial performance is dependent upon. If Novell could be disaggreated into two companies -- the inside and the outside -- the valuation would arguably support a higher valuation. But with the near term financial performance dependent on the "old" Novell we do not find the risk/reward tradeoff attractive. ragingbull.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ This is what has concerned me the last several weeks. NOVL says they have "finally gotten their marketing theme and vision together" while the rest of the world moves at "internet time". There is only one route to take, as my previous post states. I truly hope the BOD is going to earn their pay on this transaction, because the buy and hold shareholders have sure suffered the past year.