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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Y. Samuel Arai who wrote (102950)	4/7/2000 4:08:00 PM
From: ptanner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1580235

<I sold out my position at 74 7/8 just now. Maybe its a mistake, but oh well, never regret taking a profit...even if a bit too soon.> I lightened some of my trading shares this PM since AMD has grown to be 40% of my core holdings at the moment. Probably higher % after today! Rebalancing for sleep: Some nights it has been a little hard to sleep owning so much AMD and other nights it has been hard when the trading money was NOT in AMD! PT

To: Y. Samuel Arai who wrote (102950)	4/7/2000 5:14:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1580235

Y. Samuel Arai: Re: "I sold out my position at 74 7/8 just now. We've had good news three-days straight and moved up significantly all three days. We might continue to do so until earnings, but I decided to take my profits now. Maybe its a mistake, but oh well, never regret taking a profit...even if a bit too soon." Comment: Agreed...One can never be sorry taking a profit...I'm still sitting on my April 50 and 60 calls and July 40 calls...Just think when it breaks $75, (maybe even on Monday) that it still has legs! It's a fabulous bargain anywhere under $100, imho, and more investors appear to be realizing same with each passing day! The train is rolling out of the station!

To: Y. Samuel Arai who wrote (102950)	4/7/2000 5:23:00 PM
From: minnow68	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 1580235

AMD fair price It breaks my heart every time I read one of these posts. I've seen long time AMD holders selling out starting at 28 and continuing ever since. Some were permanently taking profits. Some were intending to get back in "after AMD falls back some". Most of the latter are still waiting. So, let us examine the question, what is a fair price for AMD? I'm assuming the year 2000 revenues for AMD will be six billion and profits will be one billion. Intel AMD Implied AMD fair price P/Book 13.3 5.33 $185 P/Sales 15.3 3.65 $310 P/2000 sales 14?? 1.80?? $575 P/2000 earnings 53?? 10?? $392 Now, also take into account that AMD will be growing (IMHO) much faster than Intel this year. Say the 100% year over year revenue growth should double again the fair price for AMD. Therefore, we get a year end fair price of AMD of somewhere between $370 and $1150. An average of predictions is usually much more accurate than any single method. Therefore, my best guess for AMD's end of 2000 price is (185 + 310 + 575 + 392) *2 / 4 per share. That works out to $731 per share at the end of the year. Does selling at $74 leaves some money on the table? You bet it does. I would guess 90% of the money is currently being left on the table. Mike