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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Y. Samuel Arai who wrote (103009)	4/8/2000 11:53:00 AM
From: that_crazy_doug	Respond to of 1570659

<< AMD right now is enjoying tremendous growth, thanks to the superior Athlon core and Intel's fumblings. But Intel isn't going to sit still. And beyond this year, AMD's prospects in the CPU business is somewhat uncertain. >> Beyond this year AMD's prospects are uncertain. I agree completely, however what do you think of Intel's prospects beyond this year. If the rest of this year plays out like many people on this board are saying it might, then AMD will have outexecuted intel for about a year and a half. Then you say AMD has uncertain prsopects, well sure, but how certain are you of intel's prospects? They'll have lost 15% of the market share, and they'll have been out executed for over a year. << We've already seen that everyone prefers faster Mhz vs. faster (more efficient) performance, illustrated by the lack of market support for the K6-3 CPU, which was proven to be superior to the competition in every way except Mhz. >> The k6-3 didn't have any market because it was killed in floating point by p2/p3s at the same clock speed AND it wasn't available in as high clock speeds. I also think it still would have had a market if AMD could have delivered the chip in volume, but they kept having manufacturing problems with it. << Intel is playing on this by introducing a possibly less-efficient CPU design, with a lot of headroom for Mhz ramping. Their marketing guys are probably right-on in suggesting this move. >> I think there is a good chance that AMD's copper process will allow them to get more out of the .13 process level than intel will (since they're going there on aluminum). This could make up for some of the headroom on the design, and it may allow them to hold the boat until sledgehammer comes out. (sledgehammer being a complete unknown at this point)

To: Y. Samuel Arai who wrote (103009)	4/8/2000 12:04:00 PM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1570659

Sam, Intel is playing on this by introducing a possibly less-efficient CPU design, with a lot of headroom for Mhz ramping. I don't see any reason to think that Willy is less efficient than Athlon. The IPC may be slightly less, but the higher frequency will more than compensate. AMD is going to have to be very aggressive in process technology to compete against Willy. This is analagous to the Athlon-PIII situation, except in reverse roles. Scumbria