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To: Voltaire who wrote (11936)4/10/2000 9:49:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35685
 
TA on NazComp: must now deal with all three Moving Avgs
the Naz is squarely in the midst of the bunched moving averages

the 18day MA has not crossed the 50MA, and that is a good sign
it means to this jackass that the uptrend is intact, for now

we have some congestion between 4450-4550
some will bail out after buying two weeks ago at these levels
they will bail because they shit their pants last week, and can now exit even

I see no Naz resistance of substance until 4600-4650
here is how I conclude more substantial resistance
I look for reversals in the chart
reversals are precisely where massive buying and selling take place
(imagine reversing your car while slowly moving, engine off, pushing with your legs and back, mega effort)

since the failed Naz retest at 5000 in late March, we never bounced at all, a straight retreat, no reversing or recovering, visiting the Bowels of Hades under 4000

the last time Naz reversed was midMarch, when we bounced off 4600 and made a move at the highs, falling short at 5000

so we move to 4600-4650 right quick (that is southern)
the Dogs of Hell are behind us, but they aint gone altogether
then we use the bunched MA's to stand on at 4500
then we move toward 4600's
the big volatility is done for a little while

the central question is whether this Naz rebound is V-shaped pattern or leading to a Sawtooth Consolidation W-shaped pattern

my guess is that shorterm we look V-shaped in reversal
my guess is nearterm we look W-shaped in consolidation
when May comes, we got a news vacuum, thus probably consolidation

volume was reduced toward the end of last week
thus big volatile days are over for now
but that dont mean we aint be runnin

in a couple weeks, we must face the onset of another Greenspan mistake in raising rates another qtrpt
as we leave the earnings days and look forward to the May 16th FOMC, I think we will see but not be bitten by those same Dogs of Hell
I expect by then NazComp will be above the bunched MA's at 4400-4500
those Moving Averages will support us during the May vacuum and Fed Incompetence Hour

/ Jim Willie



To: Voltaire who wrote (11936)4/10/2000 9:50:00 AM
From: Gregory  Respond to of 35685
 
Do you predict market going up next 3 weeks or market at the bottom of uptrend?



To: Voltaire who wrote (11936)4/10/2000 12:57:00 PM
From: RR  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35685
 
How ya doin' V-Man? I had to go to Branson, MO this weekend to give a speech. I saw dust in the western sky over the mountains. Could not figure out what the devil it was causing such a ruckus on the horizon. Then it hit me, it's the bulls stirring up the dirt on there way here!
They're coming!

Well, seriously, we need some running this week, Troops.
We need some great earnings reports. I want surprises. Also, like I said last week, don't ya just think it's about time that QCOM release some powerful good news? Now let's all think positive!

On another matter, I have to get some considerable cash this week to pay Uncle Sam. Guess some others on here gotta do that too? Wonder what effect that will have on the market this year since so many had good gains last year?

Have a great day.

Rick