To: Voltaire who wrote (11936 ) 4/10/2000 9:49:00 AM From: Jim Willie CB Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35685
TA on NazComp: must now deal with all three Moving Avgs the Naz is squarely in the midst of the bunched moving averages the 18day MA has not crossed the 50MA, and that is a good sign it means to this jackass that the uptrend is intact, for now we have some congestion between 4450-4550 some will bail out after buying two weeks ago at these levels they will bail because they shit their pants last week, and can now exit even I see no Naz resistance of substance until 4600-4650 here is how I conclude more substantial resistance I look for reversals in the chart reversals are precisely where massive buying and selling take place (imagine reversing your car while slowly moving, engine off, pushing with your legs and back, mega effort) since the failed Naz retest at 5000 in late March, we never bounced at all, a straight retreat, no reversing or recovering, visiting the Bowels of Hades under 4000 the last time Naz reversed was midMarch, when we bounced off 4600 and made a move at the highs, falling short at 5000 so we move to 4600-4650 right quick (that is southern) the Dogs of Hell are behind us, but they aint gone altogether then we use the bunched MA's to stand on at 4500 then we move toward 4600's the big volatility is done for a little while the central question is whether this Naz rebound is V-shaped pattern or leading to a Sawtooth Consolidation W-shaped pattern my guess is that shorterm we look V-shaped in reversal my guess is nearterm we look W-shaped in consolidation when May comes, we got a news vacuum, thus probably consolidation volume was reduced toward the end of last week thus big volatile days are over for now but that dont mean we aint be runnin in a couple weeks, we must face the onset of another Greenspan mistake in raising rates another qtrpt as we leave the earnings days and look forward to the May 16th FOMC, I think we will see but not be bitten by those same Dogs of Hell I expect by then NazComp will be above the bunched MA's at 4400-4500 those Moving Averages will support us during the May vacuum and Fed Incompetence Hour / Jim Willie