To: Kent Rattey who wrote (8587 ) 4/11/2000 11:54:00 AM From: LBstocks Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 24042
Fiber Optic Equipment Demand Means High Profits In 1Q Dow Jones News Service ~ April 11, 2000 ~ 10:39 am EST By Johnathan Burns NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Brother, can you spare a capacitor? There are some fiber optic systems makers who would be grateful if you could. Last week, Tellabs Inc. (TLAB) said its earnings this quarter would come in slightly below the Street's expectations, in part because of difficulty in acquiring the components it needs to make its equipment. The company also said it was seeing higher installation expenses during the first quarter. So why would the Tellabs profit warning be a good thing? Because it shows that component makers such as JDS Uniphase Inc. (JDSU) and E- TEK Dynamics Inc. (ETEK) are selling into a sweet market, while fiber optic system makers such as Tellabs, Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU) and Nortel Networks Corp. (NT) are having a hard time keeping up with demand. "I think we are going to see very strong results coming out of the optical networking space," said Conrad Leifur, analyst with U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray. "Service providers are trying to keep pace with the demand caused by Internet usage, and that's driving strong systems demand." As a result, many optical networking companies are expected to beat consensus earnings estimates in their respective quarters. E-TEK, which will be the first in the sector to report earnings (on Tuesday after the market close) is expected to post its best results in 11 quarters. "I think E-TEK will set a strong tone," Leifur said. E-TEK, awaiting regulatory approval to merge with leading component-maker JDS Uniphase, is expected to earn 21 cents a share in its fiscal third quarter, up from 14 cents a share a year ago. Revenue is expected to be around $80 million, a 10% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 62% increase from a year ago. The bellwether of the component makers will be JDS Uniphase. The San Jose, Calif., company is expected by most analysts to beat the First Call/Thomson Financial consensus estimate of 10 cents a share in its fiscal third quarter, twice what it reported last year. "I think their business looks great," said CIBC World Markets Corp. analyst Jim Jungjohann. "They've got across-the-board demand and huge product breadth." JDS Uniphase is expected to post more than $350 million in revenue, an increase of almost 125% over a year ago. After selling into an estimated $6 billion market last year, the fiber optics industry is expected to sell more than $23 billion in systems and components by 2003 as telecommunications companies expand their networks to handle heavier traffic more cheaply. Jungjohann said that in the last four years, fiber optic technology has helped increase bandwidth capacity 1,600 times. But that isn't enough to meet the next wave of data traffic, expected to increase 30 times in size by 2003. Lucent, which derives a small but growing part of its revenue from fiber optics, will issue one of the more closely watched reports among systems makers in the first quarter. After missing its first-quarter earnings estimates by 18 cents a share, the world's largest telecommunications equipment maker is expected to post earnings of 22 cents a share on revenue of around $9.8 billion for its second fiscal quarter. Lucent posted earnings of 17 cents a share in the year ago period. "I hope they recapture some of the business, because there's a lot of business out there," said David Toung, an analyst with Argus Research. "They will not make up (the earnings shortfall) in just one quarter." Said Jungjohann, "This quarter is not in the bag for Lucent. We still have our concerns." The Canadian Nortel Networks benefited from Lucent's slip, selling the higher- capacity products for which Lucent hadn't anticipated demand. Nortel is expected to post earnings of 18 cents a share on revenue of $5.2 billion in the first quarter, up from 14 cents a share on $4.4 billion last year. Ciena Corp. (CIEN) is expected to post earnings of 10 cents a share on revenue of $170 billion in its fiscal second quarter, which ends in April, compared to break even on $111 million in revenue a year ago. Tellabs - after its warning - is expected to post first-quarter earnings of 26 cents a share on revenue of about $630 million compared to 25 cents on $470 million a year ago. "I think the bumps are part of tremendous demand," Toung said. Tellabs "seemed to indicate component shortages would be less of a problem in the second quarter." Also, SDL Inc. (SDLI) is expected to post earnings of 16 cents a share on revenue of $66.4 million in the first quarter compared to 7 cents on $37.7 million a year ago. -By Johnathan Burns, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2020; johnathan.burns@ dowjones.com (END) DOW JONES NEWS 04-11-00 10:39 AM