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Technology Stocks : Terayon - S CDMA player (TERN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jay Fisk who wrote (510)4/12/2000 7:47:00 AM
From: rainwater  Respond to of 1658
 
I have never heard analysts identifying imposters on a live CC. You are quite right that this was a bizarre CC
It seems that this is clearly an "orchestrated" short attack.

Now while Rakib did sound casual - it was quite clear from the angle of the questions that no matter what his answer was the intended action was to cause suspicion and designed to throw him off-guard. The bit about asking the CFO whether he sold more or less than 50% of his holdings was completely off track - this is a free country - and I did not buy TERN because its CFO agreed not to sell.

Anyway time and 1 quarter will confirm all allegations - I have more trust in Rakib that in insinuators who misrepresent themselves. I was in no hurry to double my holdings in TERN until their sales confirmed their overseas expansion. Now with this short desperation - this morning may provide an opportunity that may not come again.



To: Jay Fisk who wrote (510)4/12/2000 4:22:00 PM
From: Dan B.  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1658
 
Jay,

Thanks for posting the CC Number. I'd tried through the net but it was garbled.

I'd like to touch on a few of your points.

Rakib, with his broken English and resultant repeated search for words and form, sounded happier and more confident than I'd ever heard him sound before. I've always thought it a bit of a kick listening to folks struggle with English, and he does a good job all in all- but it does make me grin just listening.

Jay, you said there was no wrap-up. That is simply FALSE. Perhaps you lost your connection- as while the moderator clearly mistakenly offered that the CFO would give it, Rakib was in fact the one who did. Again, there indeed was a fluid and fine wrap-up.

I don't know what you are talking about when you say questions were cut off in mid sentence...save if you mean the reference of a questioner who believed the CFO had been cut-off once- as I recall it. The voice activated circuits obviously used do make things sound choppy.

Jay, the "major strategic wins" in Asia and the question of resulting near-term sales question was handled quickly in a thorough and honest manner. The lack of even months worth of history in the Asian region itself with which to base any predictions was pointed out and he offered us to reasonably expect a similar positive path for the future of revenue streams in the region as was the case with prior regions after the start-up phase(i.e. mostly initial stage head-end sales vs. later higher margin modem sales). And I believe Japan was singled out as being further along than the Hong Kong, Korea, and China deployments.

As for Telegate, I believe he pointed positively to future product development and announcements of same. He pointed to coming announcements of products resulting from combinations of acquired tech.- advancement of the cherrypicker product being singled out. Very positive.

He was badgered- to my way of thinking- with the same question concerning the Cablelabs letter more than once after his answer was already known- quite rude of the questioners IMO- and finally this resulted in him achieving his most most gleeful and upbeat moment of the call(he laughed/giggled) when saying his customers have access to the complete story of correspondence on the issue and feel it's humorous that people single out a single bit of information- and offer to him that they suspect short interests are behind the furor. It was interesting that one questioner on this subject was singled out by another as definitely NOT representing his firm.

Commenting on S-CDMA, they told of their plan to produce the DOCSIS 1.1 compatible modems with advanced phy S-CDMA/TDMA later this year- and offered that Cablelabs has yet to begin the certification process for 1.1 with TDMA itself. But TERN intends to submit with a system of their own design offering 1.1 compatibility. I would note that TERN's track record for getting certifications is good, including getting S-CDMA itself approved for use by @Home. A questioner pointed to the existence of some Cablelabs personnel now working for TERN, and Rakib allowed that these guys and TERN's customers all believe S-CDMA will be good for the industry. Also, an as yet unnamed "top" potential U.S. customer coming online soon was alluded to by a questioner, and Rakib acknowledged that an announcement is likely to be forthcoming soon. Very positive, IMO.

Jay, in the end of your report, you offer the quote "But lets move on." I'm not sure the thread cares who that reminds you of, I just want to make it clear to all that that quote came from a questioner, not management- as I feel that could easily be misconstrued in your post.

Summing up, management was upbeat and straightforward even in the face of badgering concerning the "so-called cease and desist" letter. I detected appropriate calm concerning this matter, insider sales matters, and all matters...characterized by the laughter I mentioned earlier. These guys have many irons in the fire and did a fine job, IMO.

Dan B



To: Jay Fisk who wrote (510)4/13/2000 4:29:00 AM
From: Mark[ox5]  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 1658
 
Jay Fisk, you are misguiding people who did not listen to the CC. First of all, everyone interprets things from their position.. as someone long on a stock I would hear it differently than you who look to be short. I have no problem with your short position, but i do have a problem with some of your statements regarding the CC.

First of all you stated the CC was bizarre. I agree 100%, in fact I put a call into the CFO immediately afterwards and he has returned my call on voicemail and we will speak tommorow regarding the callers on the CC. Apparently TERN needs to keep it closed only to their analysts because by opening it up to the public a lot of fake calls were put in. I have listened to many many CC's and never encountered anything like this. A guy calls in named "Joe Boner from Chase" and attacks the co. and than 3 calls later the real analyst from Chase calls and said that other guy is not associated with Chase, etc. Another name that was obviously a take off of female body parts called in earlier. You did not mention that in your "analysis" of the CC.

I'm a realistic long, and I have concerns.. I am not the head in the sand sort of long who you find on Yahoo boards. I have a lot of questions about the amount of shares being issued and where exactly they are going that Im going to ask the CFO tommorow as well.. but at least im honest and not one sided, while your assessment and many shorts are not looking at both sides.

Some specific points I take issue with in your post:

You state
I've never heard a more defensive, antagonistic attitude from ANY public company, and the analysts were KIND.

I dont know what you were listening to. I think when the same question was asked the 4th time (first by a real analyst, and then 3x more by these "Joe Boner" types regarding the DOSCIS letter) I would get defensive at that point to. The rest of the call was very upbeat and positive and answers to real analysts questions were complete and very conservative. You said analysts were KIND? Which ones? the real ones or the fake ones? I heard comments like "Well the results looked good, or at least you made them look that way" by one "analyst" .. so this is a comment you have ever heard from any analyst on any CC in your life? Please state when you have heard that before.. Id love to hear a replay.

You stated:
Questions were cut off in mid-sentence, at the end it sounded like they just pulled the plug. No wrapup.


2 questions were cut off in mid-sentence, both by the fake "analysts", and both questions had to do with either DOSCIS standard which CEO had answered 3x earlier in the conference call, and than another guy started asking about some Turbo whatever company which Rakib had stated 2x EARLIER he had no knowledge of...

Also there was a wrap up at the end - of course you missed it because of heavy thunderstorms in your area I am sure.

You stated:
With all the fanfare on Asian business, termed a "major strategic win," apparently lacks firm orders, unable to provide any guidance on unit sales other than "in the 10,000's, not 100,000's during 2000." "Give us next quarter, we'll have a better idea then."

My impression is totally different and I stated it as I was hearing it live on the Yahoo message board. My view (being long) is all i hear from shorts is how aggressive they are in sales, how aggressive they are in PR, how aggressive and misleading they are period. So when I heard his response I was very happy. He said he would like some time under his belt with these new Asia initiatives, before he set guidance or gave estimates. So here is a very conservative answer and you attack him. SO he cannot win... if he states lofty goals he is aggressive and misleading, if he states he would like to wait to see how deployment is for a Q or so, you guys yell at him for lacking "firm orders" and being essentially clueless. Right? So whatever the answer is, attack him. Obviously they give guidance to analysts and business is exceeding even their internal expectations... they gave guidance after last Q, and they surpassed it by 10-12 MILLION in revenue... that isnt good enough for shorts I understand. And now they signed agreements in China and Korea and Hong Kong all within past 6-8 weeks (2 of the agreements within the past 3 weeks) and you expect all the numbers on the plate right now... very reasonable.

Your comment re:
Telegate

I have no idea on that

You stated:
"SAB-101 will not affect our revenue going forward." Sure, that's expected, but what happens to prior sales restatements ?


Yes, and you didnt finish the sentence. You guys give half the story, not the whole story. Dont you remember the statement about they had met with Ernst and Young that very morning to further clarify the issue?? Or did you conviently leave it out. Did you hear the part where he said they dont think it will affect past revenue, and if it does it will be immaterial? Did you walk to the fridge during that part? Or were you only writing down the half of the CC you wanted to hear.

So right now the CFO has his balls on the line by saying any past revenue dealing with SAB101 should be immaterial, and if he is proven wrong than that is a big slap in a face to investors and a bad sign in terms of reliability of management. But he is at least addressing it now and stating their current view on it. (which is a very positive view, and that is that it will be immaterial)

That is a realistic viewpoint, and not sugarcoating it. I am not here saying "SAB101 MEANS NOTHING! THEY SAID THAT!!! SO THERE" I am saying that is straight froM CFO's mouth as of 4/11/00 so we shall judge them going forward to see how true it is. But you only post the potential negative cuz you were in the fridge getting a beer during that statement I am sure.

Anyhow, that is enough, I just started in on your "points of contention" and hit the first four or five, I could post similar viewpoints for the rest but why bother.

The EPS issue I find laughable.. half these tech companies dont have a shred of "real earnings", they all do pro forma and make .14 EPS when in reality they are all money losers. JDS Uniphase which is a "blue chip tech" company is losing money out of their a$$ if you take away the "pro forma", but no one mentions it there.. its only an issue with TERN. At least at TERN revenue is ramping exponentially (back to back sequential Q's north of 50% rev growth) and with revenue growth, high barriers to entry, customer wins, bandwith niche that is only set to explode over next 3-5 years, you at least have a framework for super profitbality.

Is TERN perfect? Of course not.. any business run by "family" always has be raising my eyebrows. Their lack of openeness on distribution of shares has me raising eyebrows, but you remind me of the people on Yahoo mentioning TERN in same breath with ECNC (penny stock with no revenues only PR)

Later