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To: SecularBull who wrote (6355)	4/12/2000 1:21:00 PM
From: Bridge Player	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8096

<< BP & Thread, what relevance to you give to margin calls and tax-need selling vs. a true rotation to old economy stocks away from the Nasdaq? >> IMO the first two factors are more important, combined with a simple realization that the 300-600% gains in many tech stocks had caused valuations to become totally unsustainable. To repeat a comment I made on another board, if the manner of valuing rapid growth companies EVER reverts to long-standing, historic standards, e.g. multiples of earnings relative to growth rates say, PEs of 40-60 for rapid growth, franchise companies, then a lot of highly-favored companies may go down 80-90% from their highs. Anyone want to make the argument why Cisco, just to take an example, should continue to sell for 120-150 times earnings, when throughout most of its history it sold for 40-60 times? And with growth rates at least as high as expected going forward. Try using multiples like that of estimated 2000 earnings and see what prices you come up with for the likes of CREE, MRVC, SEBL, JDSU, RMBS, SUNW, YHOO, AOL, QCOM, and innumerable others. BP

To: SecularBull who wrote (6355)	4/12/2000 6:28:00 PM
From: Jill	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 8096

Hi thread, Poet and I are sitting in the sun in the Caribbean declaring bankruptcy and siping margaritas. No actually Poet and I just ate some Chinese food and are sitting in front of my computer weeping. We both think magin calls play a huge part, and taxes. Jill: I can't believe how every company beat estimates today and it meant nothing except more selling. It didn't stanch the bloodflow at all. Poet: I can't believe how fast Jill types. I think PAL made a really good point this morning about how people have started to use their stockmarket portfolios as savings accounts and hence I think we'll see more drop in the NAZ due to money being pulled out to pay taxes. Jill: We could both be facing margin calls tomorrow, Jill because of short put positions (and I was being careful) and Poet because she was margined 15% and now it's up to 50% because of the drop of prices of all the stocks. Now thread, we know what each other looks like finally and we are shocked to find out that today as soon as we met in person we both became petite blondes. It was really weird. After an entire lifetime of not being petite blondes suddenly we are both 5'3 and very flaxen.