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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Enigma who wrote (51409)4/13/2000 5:08:00 PM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 116760
 
The fundamentals for Gold are Extremely Bearish:

1) The Dollar continues to rise.
2) The Australian Dollar and Euro are weak and have broken down.
3) Comex gold warehouse stocks have surged over the past month.
4) The Growth rate > Inflation Rate.

Tell me one thing that is fundamentally bullish about gold right now in this economic environment.

PS Oh I forgot, the commercials are now long comex gold futures!



To: Enigma who wrote (51409)4/13/2000 8:28:00 PM
From: goldsheet  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 116760
 
> The problem is that nobody - nobody here at least - has the least clue on the fundamentals

Fundamentally, there is just too much available supply.

It's not the forward sales or central banks, it continues to be primary mine production (as I have been saying for 4 years) After spending billions on new properties and equipment in the mid 90s, the majors continue to produce at historically high production levels. They have also learned to reduce costs and be profitable in the current environment.

Higher prices made them invest to increase production, but lower prices does not mean lower production. Folks continue to have a hard time accepting that reality. The mining industry is capital intensive, and it is all about cash flow. Just received the 1999 Barrick annual report, and they reinvested 620 million into capital expenditures out of 702 million in cash flow. You know what that means, even more primary mine production.