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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (51410)	4/13/2000 5:56:00 PM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 116757

Thursday, April 13, 2000 CURRENCY Yuan in slide to lowest in two years REUTERS in Shanghai -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beijing allowed the yuan to slide to the lowest level against the dollar in more than two years in what analysts said could be a test of market reaction to a wider trading band for the currency. Buying of US dollars picked up late yesterday morning as demand from importers showed signs of growth, and the yuan closed at a 28-month low of 8.2830 against the US dollar. There was no sign of central bank intervention to support the yuan, traders said. The central bank usually keeps the yuan within a range of 8.2770 to 8.2800. "It is very unusual that the central bank let the yuan close below 8.2800," said a dealer at a local bank. "We think Beijing might be trying to test market reaction before it can put its proposal in place." A spokesman of the central People's Bank of China declined to comment. A central bank official in February said the government was considering a gradual widening of the trading band as the mainland pursued its bid to join the World Trade Organisation. Some dealers said the central bank may have been working to widen the band on Wednesday by buying dollars at higher rates in contrast to market expectations. "Some late dollar buying was bid at as high as 8.2890. It is possible that the central bank tried to guide the exchange rate movement," said a dealer at a foreign bank. The slide yesterday came as Foreign Trade Minister Shi Guangsheng was reassuring Southeast Asians in Kuala Lumpur that Beijing would not devalue the yuan. "We have never considered to change the currency value, and there is no need for us to do that," he said.

To: Rarebird who wrote (51410)	4/13/2000 6:17:00 PM
From: james flannigan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116757

Rarebird,here some of the bullish sides.1)no exploration by jrs to find new reserves that the majors depleating.2) lowest POG in 20 years,and if you ajust for inflation its more like 40 years.3) if there is truly 10 t0 14 thousand tons sold short,there is noway to replace those ounces even with planed central bank sales.4) the new traders say that gold is no longer a currency,if so then why did gold increse in value of $12 last week when the us markets tanked in less than a half hour?5) for every seller there is a buyer only one party will be right in the end.Iam not a gold bug but its not every day that somebody wants to sell you somthing at a price of 20 years ago.It would be nice if we could buy a house at prices of 20 years ago.

To: Rarebird who wrote (51410)	4/13/2000 9:15:00 PM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116757

Give me some statistics on the demand side so that we have a more complete picture. This is the problem as I see it - we hear all the time that demand outstrips supply yet the price stays down - even the CBs 300 tons doesn't, with production, equal demand - or so I've read somewhere. So the balance is where? Leased and sold into the carry trade? That is what I mean about nobody having a clue. BTW why is it bearish for commercials to be long - you may be right but I'd like to know your reasoning.

To: Rarebird who wrote (51410)	4/14/2000 4:10:00 AM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116757

Rarebird, i dont direct this at your integrity but just to give you my personal take on it, i am very skeptical of the government`s statistics , especially the inflation rates reported in the PPI and CPI. Others would also point out the Austrian view on inflation and argue that asset inflation (in the market) is where one should look at. (i think i may have bitten more than i can chew on this one, but anyway...) Edit: should be clearer on the quote about Austrian School of economics here. I meant that perhaps the asset inflation that has happened in the shares market is a better indication of inflation than the CPI etc... The stats have their own mistakes built in, some doubtful accounting and adjustments performed on them and their sampling can be less than perfect all that subjected to government oversight.... The indices dont lie... although they can be manipulated too... Ask a Thai or a Korean what he/she thinks is the best form of money?End of edit >>> Message #51410 from Rarebird at Apr 13 2000 5:08PM The fundamentals for Gold are Extremely Bearish: 1) The Dollar continues to rise. 2) The Australian Dollar and Euro are weak and have broken down. 3) Comex gold warehouse stocks have surged over the past month. 4) The Growth rate > Inflation Rate. <<< Regards Stephan