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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (64518)	4/13/2000 5:33:00 PM
From: Telemarker	Respond to of 95453

I'll echo your sentiments, JimL. But I haven't owned an OS stock since early last year as my quantatative analysis has led me elsewhere. In the patch, I have been only owning/purchasing E&P's whose current production is over 50% natgas (the higher this %, the better), and a small amount of integrated midcaps. NAS down 17%+ this week and the E&P's haven't blinked. The valuations on the E&P's are still too attractive for me to sit on the sidelines waiting to pick them up cheaper. Anyone care to suggest an OS stock if I were to buy just one? Best of luck to all.

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (64518)	4/13/2000 5:59:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Jim L - that is a good observation; but I see it as an opportunity to - Take profits in the E&P's & rotate immediately to a great re-entry buying opp in the driller service names. You're beginning to scare me Jim; as we've been on the same page for months (VBG) ? ...remember; "if" Nat Gas retraces to $2.50 - where is EOG going ? - AND - if NG retracers to $2.50 is FLC going to be doing any less drilling ? - and their dayrates ARE going to be ramping up due to utilization/cap ex spending increases in 2H 2000 regardless of anything other than a total commodity price crash in Oil, or Gas. I get your point - but; I see it as a great re-rotation play. My Pound the table - valuation gap divergence play on the E&P's; is basically over ! - I got my price targets on my mid cap E&P's and I simultaneously got a re-retrace on my fav' driller service names - to a degree that it was like I wrote the script on how the Oilpatch would play out... this is exactly what I was praying for personally. For me; its all most too good to be true ?!?! REMEMBER: go back to look at the major rotation moves of the oilpatch in 97 , or early 98; the drillers & service stocks are the MAMBO KINGS - without any question... especially; given the huge move from the bottoms on the E&P's - and in my way of thinking; there's more "historic & probable" downside to $3 Nat Gas than upside on a risk vs. reward to valuation basis here... Give me a $18 FLC here with a $70 price target, versus a $24 EOG with a $25-$30 price target and record gas prices.... drilling utilization and dayrates are going up regardless of what commodity prices do here - with the only exception being a total market freefall in commodity prices. JimL - we may agree to disagree - but I see this as the near pinnacle of what has been working of late - selling the pops/strength & rotating/buying the dips/weakness. We shall see... *** one final word of warning on the E&P's - remember when Nat Gas retreated off of the euphoria of $3+ last Aug-Sept; that was when the E&P's sold off 30-50% folks... same scenario is setting itself up again potentially. I don't like to "bet" on record high commodity prices remaining at record highs - I do like to "bet" however when the stocks get sold off and the commodity prices rebound , but the shareprice's dont - as in what we just saw.. But; I am a seller/profit taker on the over-bought run ups with $3 gas and a buyer off the oversold blow offs with $2.50 Gas. I am selling my mid cap E&P's here because this looks, feels and smells just like last Aug-Sept...

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (64518)	4/13/2000 6:56:00 PM
From: jbe	Respond to of 95453

What about Key Production (KP), E & P enthusiasts? True, it is small, and thinly traded. But the four analysts who follow KP all rate it a Strong Buy. And there seems to be good reason for that: sales growth & eps growth have both been quite remarkable, and KP has had a very nice price run since January of this year. I have to confess that even though I know zilch about the business that KP is in, its numbers, especially vis-a-vis the industry as a whole, looked so good to me that I acquired a small position in it several weeks ago (which has paid off quite well). Take a look at this Market Guide ratio comparison, for example: yahoo.marketguide.com But I really don't know what is behind the numbers. And if anyone out there has some concrete knowledge about this company's operations, I'd appreciate hearing what you think about KP's prospects. Since KP is so small, it is as easy to run its price down as it is to run it up. jbe