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To: Hashem Akbari who wrote (70499)	4/13/2000 8:09:00 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Respond to of 152472

Hashem - You are absolutely correct IMO. Which is why I'm holding, not selling at this level or any lower level. The proof of the pudding is 10-year Treasuries, not S/T rates. The Treasuries are in good shape. That's the basis a thinking person would use as step 1 to construct risk-adjusted discount rates. But I don't think that Mr. and Mrs. America will be satisfied with a 5.80% yield to retirement! -------------------- Hey, rather than inflation or recession, how's about following the Ralph Nader plan and forgiving all third world debt and then sending that $40B/mo. overseas so they can reborrow? <vbg>

To: Hashem Akbari who wrote (70499)	4/16/2000 11:31:00 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

"On the short term, I do not see either a sign of inflation or a recession" Signs of inflation have been present now for 6 months. The recent CPI number that was interpreted as inflationary is only the beginning - the next 3 months numbers will be more enlightening. It is nonsense that our economy is shielded from the inflationary impact of oil. We consume more oil on a per capita basis than any other nation by a wide margin. Because of long term contracts and extensive hedging that the major consumers of oil engage in, the real effects of crude prices are delayed for 6mo. to a year. So we are just now answering the question as to our resilience to crude. And the answer is, no, we are not immune. Both inflation and a recession await us. The only thing unknown is how hard and how fast the dollar is going to get hammered. Anybody have any idea what holds up well during inflationary times? What's that I hear from the hearing impaired section? "Gold?" No, you surely jest.