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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (64536)	4/13/2000 8:58:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 95453

>> ... the drillers just went nuts << More OSX vs E&P... By many measures the drillers have already gone nuts. I would say most reflect the full value of what's happening right now. We'll soon see how RDC reacts to just "meeting" estimates. I can't imagine a run up on just meeting estimates. Being a land driller they should have had better upside than many OSX issues. Actually I think the time to hit the OSX stocks hard will be AFTER earnings. To me all the good news is already priced in unless we get some cap ex announcements from the majors. As such I expect some profit taking and sideways action in the drillers during this next month. However all bets are off if the Majors announce some cap ex increases during earnings. They may wait till summer or fall, but I would think they would take tenative steps soon. The flip side also holds true. If we get through earnings period and there is virtually NO cap ex increase you may see some profit taking. It's hard to tell what's build into these stocks already because the earnings are not here yet. I think you have to own some OSX issues here just in case they run, but I don't think it's yet the time to overweight. The E&P's and mini-majors are very safe to own during this earnings period. You may miss some lows in the OSX issues, but you won't lose money either. (Who really cares if you catch the low anyway. We seem somewhat obsessed about that imho. I guess it's a male ego thing.) We've seen how they weather the tech downdraft already. Earnings will be great and gas prices are climbing. There have been buyouts with probably more to come. I still think you are a little early on your OSX call. The cliche goes you want to own stocks that hold up well in a market downturn. That shows strength. Well the majors and E&P's have done that better than any other subsector lately. Either way the debate will be settled in the next few days. Many drillers are close to breaking their neck line unless they bounce tomorrow or monday.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (64536)	4/13/2000 9:49:00 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Slide...The Patch was rockin back then. Oil prices were great. Drillers were getting new contracts right and left with a higher day rate every time. They were seeing who could release press releases the fastest. I think that by and large the escalation of stock prices were a surprise to everyone. This was before the dot com and tech craze took off, so the oil patch was a screamer that got attention in 1997. Until the day the music died on November 6. Somehow I feel that the oil patch stocks will not get the same 'attention' this time. Mainly because it has been demonstrated how vulnerable the sector is to decline as a result of oil supply manipulation. And we have to acknowledge that stock prices move higher based on the perception of the future. The same erratic movement of oil prices which causes oil companies to limit capital spending will likely also cause a reluctance on the part of stock buyers. However...and this is a BIG however...I strongly believe that the world is heading dead on into a supply crisis as related to oil and natural gas (for different reasons). I have had the benefit of seeing the ground up data that was recently compiled by Petrodata. Anyone that has reviewed that information can not deny the coming reality. Petrodata has shared this information with OPEC, and OPEC concurs. In fact, OPEC told them that they should go 'tell the world' so that when this crisis occurs it won't be that only OPEC is to blame. Petrodata has presented the report to more than one oil producing government and government agencies...they concur, but say that there is nothing they can do about it -- the situation is too political. I have to think that when a REAL supply crisis hits town that these stocks will soar higher than anyone can imagine. The day to day price movements are interesting, and even fun, but the true opportunity in the oil patch must be in the longer term investments that will be in place to take advantage of The Invisible Crisis. That is why I established the little oil portfolio that I posted a couple of days ago. That group is not for today, but for 18-24 months ahead. Similar portfolios should be established for the oil service side of the business. Oil is a huge dollar business. Oil as a product is the most important commodity used by the industrial world. Without a secure and somewhat predictable supply of oil the world will screech to a halt. And without rigs...there is no oil. That is a very macro view, and not very useful if one is trying to make money on a day to day or weekly basis. As a stock investor, oil/gas feels safe to me right now. I don't feel safe in any other market sector...but that's just a personal thing. The only thing that turned the lights out on the party of 1997 was the drop in oil prices. As many have said on this board, the cure for low oil prices is low oil prices. And this is occuring right now...in spades. Matt Simmons is dead on right...although he may exagerate a bit in order to make a point. And even Matt's group does not do the ground up field by field data collection like Petrodata -- in fact, no one else in the world does it (to my knowledge). In order to know what's going on, one needs to know what's going on...first take the census, then tell about the city. Don't tell me about Dallas based on what someone from New York read about the city and wrote in a report. Most oil forecasters use second/third/fourth hand data that wasn't good to start with...but sounds official. If you want a clear drink of water...go to the head of the stream. ...but I digress big