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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: areokat who wrote (22764)	4/14/2000 6:23:00 PM
From: chaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

We seem to have several cross currents running on the thread at the moment, and it's quite understandable. On the one hand, LTB&H makes sense for the multiannual horizon, on the other, investing is about making money, and holding through one of these runs counter to that. For some of us, it's about keeping money For myself, I'm now all cash, and ahead of where I was last November, but not compared to where I was in early March, so I feel pretty good. One I have not sold is GMST, but I'm now back at my entry point. Amazingly, this one was slightly green today. I do have a concern. AG is surely going to raise rates again in May, and in anticipation of that, we'll see some new home purchases and resales by people trying to lock in the lower rate. That will be seen, down the road, as positive economic news of the sort that AG is trying to cool down by reducing liquidity...when in the short run, his very actions persuade people to borrow sooner, thereby increasing liquidity. Damned if he does...damned if he doesn't. The real danger as I see it is that the consumer spending bubble might just stop. With wealth withering in the market, there clearly is less to spend. Many people will indeed feel poorer. The impact on earnings could be dramatic, and we could find ourselves right smack dab in the middle of a real recession in a flash. If that were to happen, we could get sore necks looking up at today's closing prices. On the positive side, there are those who thought they'd never see another NAZ like last year. They may....in a few years, when a year like this one is forgotten...the NAZ will be back. You can't put a lid on technology. Chaz