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To: LarryCPA who wrote (4169)	4/16/2000 2:55:00 AM
From: michael r potter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

OT: The market. The similarities in the markets recent behavior and the days/weeks leading up to the Monday crash of Oct. 19, '87 are strikingly similar, right down to the extremely bad day the Friday before which was back then the worst day in the market with the Dow down about 110 pts-to be followed by the following Mondays -550 crash. Knowing that, I was buying a lot of names late Friday. Why?, knowing that if the pattern continued, Monday would crash. Well, I think Friday was the crash day for this cycle down. The NASDAQ is more like the real market to people now, just as in '87 the Dow was big and NASDAQ still small. The NASDAQ fell 25% on the week and 10% on Friday. OK, not as big a crash as can be imagined, but the NASDAQ fell much more in % terms on Friday than the Dow did the Friday before OCT. 19th -twice as much. I think Friday was the mini-crash day and it won't be followed by a Black Monday. Could be wrong of course, it depends a lot on what the average American decides over the weekend. Margin calls on Monday will be in abundance as the damage in the no-pe,hi-pe was severe. I still don't see a lot of real bargains out there-not of the nature we had at the Oct. '99 or 'Oct. 98 bottoms. So there is still risk from a valuation standpoint. But...there is a lot of money on the sidelines and I expect people will perceive prices to be at bargain or near bargain levels and are very close to stepping up to the buy window. IMO a lot of fresh young faces running mutual funds had cash, were bravely trying to buy early in the week and were getting killed. Finally by Friday, they just started staring at their machines in shock and couldn't pull the trigger. With even a whiff of stability, a lot of sideline money including theirs will produce a violent rally. It won't be a permanent V-turn, as at some point, those who felt they should have lightened up will sell into the rally and that should be the pattern. More volatility both ways, but a probable short term bottom either at last Fridays close or occurring somewhere between 20 to 45 minutes after the open Monday. The action late in the week was described as a buyers strike and forced margin selling. I don't think the greater public was selling much. Should I misjudge their intent and they decide to sell, it's over. People have learned that since the crash of '87, the worst thing to do is sell into a decline. It always comes back. I think eventually that will be a seriously flawed strategy, but I believe for the greater public to sell big time it would take a grinding bear of long duration. One where the rallies renew hope, then fail and the market keeps hitting lower levels accompanied by distress being reported in the economy and concerns about jobs and employment. A grinding wearing away of confidence and buildup of psychological pain to the point where the reaction is "I just want out-any price" A lot of dot coms can kiss their dreams of glory gone forever. The death strangle I described here a few months ago will begin in earnest. Silicon Valley will be slightly altered by what has taken place. The public will be altered by this experience. It is sad in a way. Unlikely will be the day we see an ICGE go from $6 to $200 with a totally ludicrous $50 Billion market cap. That takes a class of investors incredibly naive in regards fair valuation and the consequences of that disregard. Millions have now been introduced to the real risk of stock investing. It only seemed like a fun game whose sole purchase was to make one rich-quick. It became an almost inalienable right. Just que up to the window. Like the old saying goes, "Making money is not the difficulty, it's KEEPING it." Most are still better off than they were 1 or 2 years ago-those not heavily margined and with some measure of prudence. They do have a chance of keeping much of it and adding over time. It was a nerve wracking hold-things like ICGE on the way up but what a wonderful climate that allowed those astronomical prices to occur. It will take 20 years to raise the next naive generation. Yet, lessons often times have to be re-learned and we can still count on excesses to develop both ways because thankfully, human nature never changes. Fear today, greed tomorrow. The above comments are for thought only and not intended for your specific action. You must decide what is right for you. Best of fortune to you in that endeavor. Mike

To: LarryCPA who wrote (4169)	4/16/2000 8:46:00 PM
From: Charlie Stone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

OT: Analysts Enjoyed your observations on analysts. I have watched Wall Street Week religiously for 20 years. Has anyone else noticed that each week Louis gives halo's to the elves who correctly predicted the market direction 3 months (I think?) prior, and most of them were/are wrong....less than half, maybe consistently less than 1/3, get halos. One would think for the big bucks these guys make, that most of them would be right most of the time. Louis is a pretty smart guy...I wonder why he keeps it up...maybe its kind of a perverse joke for him, wondering when the rest of the world will catch on, and in the meantime, continuously highlighting the embarassingly poor performance of the elves. Of course, he interviews 3 of them each week...I wonder why I bother to listen, knowning they are usually wrong?? Charlie