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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (34838)	4/15/2000 12:12:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Paul, here's what Abby C. said today... netcognizance.com You said >Dent, in his "Roaring 2000" has stated that the expansion will continue until 2008/9.< How the he** can he possibly know that? Gottfried

To: Paul V. who wrote (34838)	4/17/2000 11:44:00 AM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Respond to of 70976

Les, Paul, and the gang: 2008/9, eh? Well, maybe. I tend to think even Jim Morgan is stretching a bit to "forecast" 2006. Indeed, the way AMAT has exploded in recent months (I'm talking orders and such, not the stock price) is probably unsustainable. I would think they MUST put up some more infrastructure to meet demand, even though they had empty buildings here in Austin just some months ago. I can't help but wonder how AMAT will meet emerging demand, mainly for 300 mm tools. Last I heard, they only had a pilot line for 300 mm wafer equipment in the metal deposition area. I have watched closely for announcements of 300 mm fabs, and estimated how far in advance of "pavement lots" a chip manufacturer wants the tools to be on-site, installed and qualified. From that, I project that in metal films alone, AMAT could easily have orders for 70-100 multi-chamber tools that must ship before the end of Q1/01 (Jan '01). I'd be surprised if the pilot line could build, test & ship one tool a week, or about 35-40 between now and then. It's numbers like this that drive me to be a bit cautious. Growth will happen, yes; but not wild growth. I'd love to be proven to be on the low side of the truth, however! AMAT has projected growth of up to 40% again this fiscal year, as they did last year. The difference: Last year they had buildings and resources to "grow into," this year they don't. And getting new buildings, trained people and the like doesn't happen quite as fast as market ups-and-downs. <sigh> Still, this is the tiger to ride, out of the whole herd of them, in my opinion.... Mitch