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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (22785)	4/15/2000 7:00:00 AM
From: shamsaee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Thank you for the post and reassurance.I was one of many that did some major shopping when nasdaq went from 5000 to 4500.Thinking after all we had a 10% correction and I was smart to have saved cash and what a bargain I got.Needless to say I have been grilled to the bone in this last week.The most worrying part of the purchases was that,I let myself get caught up in euphoria of a bulging portfolio which was my first mistake.The second mistake is,I bought more shares of companies who had big runups RBAK,ITWO,JNPR which have corrected by a much larger % than the Index.The third and most lethal of all the mistakes was the shinny pebbles investments,which I feel it will be a very long time before they get back to prices a month ago(hope I am wrong).I completely ignored valuations and forgot what the fool preaches and what,I used to do before investing in anything. IMHO the price to vision philosophy is pure horse manure and any investment in any company needs to be justified by valuations.As we have learnt no company is immune to corrections and they will come back sooner or later to reasonable valuations. This experience has been a great education.I decided last year to manage my own money for the long run and will continue to do so.Patients in when to buy,when to hold and when to sell are keys to good investing.A cash position on the side lines is a must.Greed will get you sooner or later.

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (22785)	4/15/2000 9:57:00 AM
From: Albert Youssef	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

This is simply a great post. I've been really inactive on SI for the past year, but may start coming back more again. Thanks.

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (22785)	4/15/2000 10:16:00 AM
From: the dodger	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike & Bruce, let me play devil's advocate here for a second. If you look at that correction/recovery chart from "the glass is half full" perspective, then you can find a great deal of comfort in those numbers, but if you look from "the glass is half empty" perspective...some questions arise. What I'm getting at is this... Looking forward -- up until October 1998 -- the average correction was 22.46% -- then followed by a very handsome 53% recovery. But if you look at that chart going backwards -- you see that every recovery "gave back" 42% of those gains in the very next correction. (.2246/.53 = .4237) Now I don't know what the index numbers were in Oct 1998, but if we give back 42% of that 267% advance (which incidentally, was 5X greater than the norm), we could be in for quite a nasty haircut - and 'bad hair days' are never any fun. I love gorilla stocks, and I essentially agree and practice the LTB&H strategy, but I also try to keep in mind that it is just that -- a strategy -- and not a religion. In other words, if I see a bus coming down the street, I head for the curb -- I do not stand in the road thinking 'god will save me'. I'm afraid that Friday -- in their mad rush to exit the market -- someone tilted the money machine. Starting Monday, I think it's a brand new game -- "stories & concepts" are totally out -- and earnings are in. To be in the market, people are going to be forced to -- once again, "do the math"...i.e...place a reasonable valuation on proven earnings and projected growth rates...and then compare the risk of that valuation to a safer, alternate form of investment -- like government bonds, or the historical returns of index funds. From the safest GE -- to the speculative ICGE -- every multiple of every stock is now suspect. Ulysses is home from his oddessy, and ready to reclaim his castle from the miscreants -- and it doesn't look like he's interested in taking any prisoners. Value has come home to roost. "the dodger"

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (22785)	4/15/2000 11:55:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I fear that some might have missed a zinger of a sentence buried in the middle of Bruce's long post. It deserves highlighting: "If and when I see concrete evidence - that proves to me beyond a reasonable doubt - investing based on bear/bull market periods that includes the correction/recovery phases listed above which provided investors a better return than those listed above, then I will simply continue to believe that the technology adoption life cycle and the core of gorilla gaming is indeed the most risk averse method of wealth accumulation in the high technology arena." The emhasis with the bold font was mine. Part of the reason I like Bruce so much is that I no longer have any need to be concerned about the long sentences I write. :) --Mike Buckley