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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (93507)	4/15/2000 10:44:00 AM
From: kendall harmon	Respond to of 120523

OJ, excellent post full of wisdom, as usual. As people tune out all the noise, they need to remember that the main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing. This is as hard to do in life as it is in the market. A while back now the WSJ had a front page story saying that the one thing which would really be important to watch to see if the bull market would end would be inflation. Gene Epstein's column in this weekend's Barrons makes sobering reading in this regard: Right now, the signs are everywhere that inflation is accelerating. Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index surged 0.7% in March, which put it 3.7% higher than the same month a year ago. Most of the lift was caused by the spike in energy prices and the hike in air fares, which in turn were due to higher fuel bills. So by next month, now that energy costs are on the retreat, we should see some deceleration in the headline CPI. But...the underlying trend is almost certainly pointing up.... ...because of the recent rise in rents, hotel bills, medical costs and education costs, as well as energy and air fares, the median CPI is headed up. What is really going now is that people are seeking to discount the possibility of a hard landing and the negative impact on future earnings this will have. A hard landing is made more likely because the TREND of underlying inflation is demonstrably UP (People such as James Padinha have been saying this for a while but they are rarely heard). So: one day at a time, yes, stick to the game plan, yes, but keep an eye on inflation. The Fed in my view is going to continue to raise in quarter point increments until they get the slowdown they want. This means we have shifted to a fundamentally different environment in which "sell the rallies" rather than "buy the dips" takes over.

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (93507)	4/15/2000 12:02:00 PM
From: dan36	Respond to of 120523

OJ, Jenna and all Gemmers. I'm a long time lurker and Market Gems subscriber. I need to say that without the wisdom, and insight provided by you all, I would not have been able to survive and thrive in this crazy market. Detractors aside, this is the finest thread on SI. Just take at look at the biting, and finger pointing going on some of the others. Lee, keep us laughing, especially now . :-). dan36

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (93507)	4/15/2000 5:21:00 PM
From: Long John	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 120523

I was contemplating what OJ said so well: now hang tough...gather some cash..sell those dogs with fleas, because wishing and hoping them back up ain't gonna get it folks... take the capital..and start fresh..trading 100 share lots at a time..using stops..a must... The mere mortals among us (me included) still are long some stocks that have been crushed this week. For instance I read plenty of posts about EMLX. I think this is a great company, I really want to own it, but not right now. My best idea is to face reality, sell it to raise some cash, and wait for some good stocks to turn around. Maybe I'll buy EMLX back in 31 days (to avoid wash sale). I do not think there is much chance of losing buying opportunities by waiting a month, especially for stocks like EMLX, RIMM, TERN that crashed after earnings were announced. A bad response to earnings takes many weeks or even months to recover from. So I will raise some cash and be ready for the correction to end. At least I had only a small percentage of available capital in my short term plays, due to being cautious and because I listened to the warnings I read on this thread. But I still feel foolish for holding too long. Thanks to everyone for the great comments this weekend, and praise to Jenna for helping us thrive. We are all lucky people. John

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (93507)	4/15/2000 7:15:00 PM
From: Andrew G.	Respond to of 120523

Is there a vast conspiracy of profit and deceit ??? Excellent post OJ. Thanks to all Gemmers. 'Reading but can't acknowledge all the great postings and insights here. Here is what I surmise from the experience of the past few months. Until recently, I really thought that the market was a freely moving dynamic system unfettered by any one major force or collective. However, as this week came into focus it became more evident that what has transpired is not the doing of John Q Public worrying about interest rates, nor the work of day traders who know the market has become over bought and due for a 'correction'. These have been effects, not the instigators nor perpetrators, IMO. The unqualified and ubiquitous reference by the media to 'investors selling' rather than shorting and liquidation of stock holdings by other entities has added to my suspicions. It is only with a feeling that I have no bearing on the markets as an individual trader and that I'm NOT privy to any 'inside information' whatsoever, that I feel unrestrained in making the following conjecture: -The market for technology stocks and more recently 'blue chip' stocks of the DOW have been driven up by obviously effective marketing via the media and by certain financial entities. -A vast resource of income to fuel the buying has been the automated deposit system of paychecks to brokerage accounts and automated payment systems to corporate accounts, insurance funds, etc. -The system snowballed and got out of hand perhaps beyond what was intended. A more complex explanation is not needed. -With no desire to make an accusation at, or point a finger at a specific entity, it is my conjecture that there was a concerted and collective effort to systematically deconstruct the edifice of speculative valuations in technology stocks and to psychologically reverse the process that precipitated it in the obliging investors. The purpose being to: - profit from the up and down cycle. - prepare for the pre-determined presence of inflation. -avoid a catastrophic drop in the markets without the capacity to profit from it in a measured and systematic way. - avoid scrutiny. Individuals on these message boards and through out the internet may ponder with dismay what 'we' have wrought. While we would like to believe our financial fate is in our hands, and that we may be to blame for the poorly timed or ineffective investment choices we make, we need also to know that the system under which we participate is not a 'fixed house' with the decisions and controls of the market controlled by an elite force. Such a revelation could not be made without a clear pattern of activity requiring an investigation. At this point I'll only speculate that such a pattern is not only apparent to many but that few feel secure to admitting awareness of it or feel capable of responding to it. I don't know what can be done about it. But I find it outrageous and wonder if others share my feeling that individuals and corporations have been deceived and perhaps unfairly mislead to the financial benefit of certain unnamed entities. I do not profess to know who is involved but I sense the pattern is there and doing something about it is non-trivial. If there is anyone out there who knows firsthand that this supposition of mine, is not the case, I'd like to hear it.