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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (951)	4/15/2000 2:31:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Message 12945125 OK scott...I think 95 percent of these will crash and burn. I would just be worried about Margin calls. If they lose 15 percent and you're fully margined... OOPs...down 30 percent. If they're off 30 percent from their high, and your on margin. OOPS....down 60 percent. Man...Double down... OOOPs...off another 15 percent! Seen it too many times....

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (951)	4/15/2000 6:33:00 PM
From: tom pope	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52153

>>Hope everyone has a strategy for WINNING If one buys good stocks that are undervalued, one will win<< Rick, I'm not quite as sanguine as you in the short run. It seems to me that enormous psychological damage has been done, and a lot of money has been withdrawn from the market through simple annihilation. Even those who were not savaged by margin calls will be leery of moving into margin again. I know I will be, even though I never came within a mile of a call in the one account in which I use margin. The problem with my strategy for winning going forward is that is that consists of doing what I knew I should do a month ago, and didn't do. Some time in mid March I posted a friend "cash is king". Did I do it? Don't be silly. And the runup was so incredible, that it allowed me to develop bad habits and not be punished. Like ignoring stops. Who needs stops when the next surge will bail you out? I hope I have that lesson burned in my brain forever. The other lesson is the importance of sector rotation. I fell in love with the biotech sector, and was blind to the fact that money was flowing out of it. The only encouraging thing I was able to find as I reviewed my portfolio this morning is that my buy and hold accounts look real ugly, but my trading account is still up 50% from Jan 1. I think that will be the lesson to take into the immediate future - be nimble. Be very nimble.