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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: werefrog who wrote (42186)	4/15/2000 5:27:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

re: thinking too much When considering putting 5-10% of my portfolio into out-of-the-money LEAPs (when do MSFT 2003s become available?), I think it is prudent to think until I have a headache. And then go kayacking with my kids, and then come back and think some more. Sometimes I think and wait too long, but never too little. If I'd gone to cash when the Fed started raising in June 1999, I'd be about half as rich as I am now. I got out too early with INTC, AMAT, and CSCO, (although still making 6-40 times my original investment), and am hoping to get back into the tech titans on this downturn. And maybe a few tech minnows, too, like EGRP and KLAC. There is very little probability of the Fed ending this downturn with a lot of interest rate cuts. First, we have to see the economy slow down, and make sure the unemployment rate is not going below 4%. Then maybe the Fed will loosen. 2001, at the earliest. Unless we give back everything since the 1998 bottom.

To: werefrog who wrote (42186)	4/15/2000 9:23:00 PM
From: Harvey Allen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

James- Don't be too sure. In 1987 more than half the Dow 584 point loss was gained back in the next two days. Harvey P.S Does anyone know how many puts Microsoft has sold? Seems to me they could have lots of stock put back to them this quarter. According to the rules of the game the difference in market price from the put price is subtracted from earnings.

To: werefrog who wrote (42186)	4/15/2000 10:58:00 PM
From: Harvey Allen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

James- Re: Put warrants. I checked the latest 10Q (12/31/99) and they sold $472,000,000 worth of Put Warrants in the last 6 months of 1999 vs $355,000,000 worth in the last six months of 1998. You've got to figure they're all in the money by now. I figure they'll have to come up with about $4 to 5 billion in cash to pay for all that put stock and with the stock down 20% it should knock earnings for a billion or so. That's a lot more than the Dr. Dos settlement. microsoft.com Harvey