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To: FR1 who wrote (449)	4/16/2000 12:11:00 AM
From: John F.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1805

Walter and Franz, great discussion. Allow me to throw in my opinion for what that is worth. IMO Greenspan will be watching the stock market and the economy very closely as the next Fed Open Market Committee meeting approaches. If the stock market (& Nasdaq in particular) exhibits resilience next week, holds its ground, and is moving up again by the time the Fed goes into the meeting, then I think he will hit us with a 0.5 increase in the fed funds rate and the discount rate. If the market tanks another 500 points over the next week or so and is exhibiting volatility as the meeting opens, then I agree that .25 is it for now. This is his last shot at raising interest rates since he will not raise rates in the fall due to the election and he will not have as strong a case in mid summer due to economic growth leveling off. I think Greenspan feels that he underestimated the strength of the economy last summer when he started raising rates and regrets not starting out with 0.5 early on. He wants to squash this bubble now, once and for all, and get it behind us. The last thing he wants, IMO, is for the Nasdaq to return to 5100 by October. He has said he is not targeting the stock market. I think he has gone on the record as targeting the high GDP. But, if you think about it, by targeting the GDP, he will eventually squash the stock market bubble and the rampant speculation that created it. My 2 cents. Not to enlightening in retrospect. I suppose it is obvious that Greenspan will be watching and formulating his thoughts as the next meeting approaches. Good luck guys.