Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (46589)	4/16/2000 3:08:00 AM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

<<Of course the market's changing. It just did. We just crashed.>> Keep in mind that looking from the top down, yes many stocks have fallen significantly and look "cheap". But its also usefull to look from the bottom up and see for example CIEN, one of your picks, has come from $8.12 in about 18 months. You may well have a good chance at a bounce here early next week but at this point its a guessing game imo. The Naz did hold what looks like a 50% fibonacci retracement from the Oct98 low to the bubble top on Friday. (I calculated 3244 as 50% retrace and friday's low was 3265) But to me a more logical place to get a strong bounce would be from 2800-2900 level on the NAZ (which is around the 62% fib retrace and would be a better test) I would not recommend jumping in to heavy here though because from a technical point of view it is impossible to call the crash "over" until more time passes. Good luck with your trades but be carefull trying to outguess the market here. The most experienced traders I know are still out and watching. Most of them have learned as I have that its more important to stay in the game than to be the one that catches the bottom. M.

To: American Spirit who wrote (46589)	4/16/2000 3:29:00 AM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

American Spirit, from your response I can see we're not only not on the same page ...but reading a different book !!. My post wasn't about a crash/correction ... but a fundamental change based upon supply/demand. Recent history shows that the market always recovers and I can understand that people would play it that way. But its only the Nasdaq that has really suffered badly so far ... and even that is only back to levels of 5 months ago ... so there are still lots of people sitting on big profits in the large cap tech stocks. At the end of the day, a stock is only worth what someone else will pay for it. To cite some of your examples ... bulls would ask what has changed for CIEN to go from 200+ to 90 ??. But then, notwithstanding some contract wins which hardly justify the move, many would ask what dramatically changed to make it rise from 8. IBM maybe solid ... but its a monster company who can't grow revenues that fast ... like 2% yr on yr to be reported this upcoming week ...??. Some analysts say its cheap .. others think its grossly overvalued. The thing is ... none of it matters. The question is whether more people want to buy the stock than sell it.... and whilst sentiment may have an upturn ... I believe there has been an undermining of the fundamentals which has kept this bull market going ... supply vs demand. It may well be that the internet will have far reaching effects on the world ... but it may turn out to be more because it's stocks pull the rug from underneath the bull market rather than the operating benefits it might bring to the corporate world. One final aside. As the internet IPO market implodes, those banks & tech companies that used sale of internet stocks they owned through their venture capital units funding, to shore up their revenue/income numbers (JPM, Intel, Microsoft to name a few), will find that option less accomodating in forthcoming quarters. With employees reverting more to looking for cash compensation than stock options ... and what maybe a sideways market undermining the trading companies do in their own stock ... numbers going forward may start to suffer. Add in the change in pooling interest rules being introduced at the end of the year (Chambers must be thinking of retiring before the house of cards collapses) ... and I'm just not that positive going forward. This forthcoming fall/spring maybe the last hurrah for a bull flailing around in its final death throes. Just my uplifting ramblings (GG) Stephen