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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Square_Dealings who wrote (46593)4/16/2000 4:37:00 PM
From: American Spirit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Doing an informal scanning of the investor threads it looks like about 75% say they are buying tomorrow and about 25% are either still short or having to raiser some cash. Very unscientific I know but it certainly gives one hope that any possible further downdraft will be lifted back up by massive bargain-hunting. Many will be gun-shy at first but the more it comes back the more will pile back in. I know it's going to be very choppy for a few days, maybe a real rollercoaster in a 10-15% range but volatility aside I believe we will rise at least modestly from these levels by mid week then find a new base. Blue chip tech bargains like MSFT at 74, IBM at 104 etc. will just attract too many buyers, and those who are tempted to sell (unless they absolutely must) will have to deal with the possibility that they are bailing out at the bottom. - My feeling all along has been that some valuations of high-fliers were ridiculous. But after Friday there just isn't a bubble out there anymore, a few with a little air left in them but not many. And they are more than balanced by quality healthy companies that have been dumped down or below their 52 week lows. The drug stocks seem the only ones to have survived last week. Everything else is a bargain for those looking to invest in that particular stock or sector. COMS is a perfect example, down from 130 to 40. At 16 PE ratio and the Palm Pilot taking over the world I don't think you'll see it sitting down there for long. I bought COMS at the end of day Friday and I think many others will find such buys irresistable as this new week takes off. Still no denying that the investment world is stunned, and that there were many casualities from last week's hurricane. Question is, has the storm passed? Or will it my mid day Monday after all the fearful and panicked get out? I would be very surprised if the overall market isn't up 10% by the end of this week. Then it will probably stablize in that area for some time to come. Not a great market to invest in but certainly a chance to make some fast modest gains from this abyss.